Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 18

January 11, 2016Lewis County, New York

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 11, 2016, 10:18 AM EST for Lewis County, New York. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 11, 2016, 10:18 AM EST (15:18 UTC)
Expired
Jan 11, 2016, 4:15 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

County Lewis County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 0 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2016-01-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2016-01-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -84 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1392 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
79 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-19 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

305 
ACUS11 KWNS 111519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111518 
NYZ000-112115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...TUG HILL PLATEAU OFF LAKE ONTARIO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 111518Z - 112115Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 IN/HR SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS
PARTS OF JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM KTYX DEPICTS MULTIPLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO CONSOLIDATING INTO AN INTENSE
BAND OVER LEWIS COUNTY WITH REFLECTIVITY UP TO 40 DBZ AT TIMES.
BASED ON THE 12Z BUF RAOB AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS...LAKE TEMP TO
850-MB DELTA-T IS AROUND 23 DEG C AND AROUND 33 DEG C FROM LAKE TO
700 MB. IN ADDITION...VWP DATA FROM KTYX SAMPLED UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FETCH ACROSS THE LONG
AXIS OF THE LAKE ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. TOWARDS
00Z...700-MB WAA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED DOWNSTREAM OF
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER APPROACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...850-MB
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BACK. THE NET EFFECT SHOULD RESULT IN
WANING INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BAND BY AROUND 00Z...A SCENARIO
WELL-SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM-NEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE.

..GRAMS.. 01/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...

LAT...LON   43947616 43927541 43927501 43837480 43697492 43627518
            43587546 43577600 43577620 43637644 43897637 43947616

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.