Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 176

March 4, 201616 counties in Florida; Camden County, Charlton County, Echols County, Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 4, 2016, 12:04 AM EST for 16 counties in Florida; Camden County, Charlton County, Echols County, Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 4, 2016, 12:04 AM EST (05:04 UTC)
Expired: Mar 4, 2016, 2:30 AM EST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 5%

Counties Alachua County, FL, Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Clay County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Duval County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Union County, FL, Camden County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Echols County, GA

The radar

The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 00:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1535 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 133 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 289 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

911 
ACUS11 KWNS 040505
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040504 
FLZ000-GAZ000-040730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...FAR SE GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 040504Z - 040730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN FL. WW IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NEAR THE COAST OF SC SWWD INTO SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. A SOLID
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS MINIMAL INSTABILITY...A 50 TO 60 KT LOW TO
MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE LINE ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS FIELDS. THIS IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE THREAT. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD BE TRANSFERRED TO THE
SURFACE WITH THE MORE INTENSE PORTIONS OF THE LINE MAKING ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
NRN FL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 03/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30998251 30288362 29868396 29428323 29308246 29548108
            30068109 30408117 30588118 30928151 30998251

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.