Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 175

March 3, 20166 counties in Alabama; 15 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 3, 2016, 5:07 PM CST for 6 counties in Alabama; 15 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 3, 2016, 5:07 PM CST (23:07 UTC)
Expired: Mar 3, 2016, 7:30 PM CST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 21 counties

Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Washington County, AL, Clarke County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Marion County, MS, Perry County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Wayne County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1734 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 75 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 420 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 497 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

159 
ACUS11 KWNS 032308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032307 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-040130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SW AL...FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 032307Z - 040130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO SW
AL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST
MUCH BEYOND 0130Z AND FOR THIS REASON...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED 70 TO 85 KT
MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED IN SRN AR AND NRN LA. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LIFT NECESSARY TO
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
WARM SECTOR IS SMALL AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG MAINLY OVER SRN LA...SRN MS AND FAR SW AL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT EARLY THIS EVENING. 

CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM JACKSON
MS TO MOBILE AL AT 00Z SHOW 70 TO 80 KT OF O-6 KM SHEAR ALONG WITH
40 TO 45 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS
MARGINALLY SEVERE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 03/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32208919 32158996 31839030 31259028 30998967 30668750
            30888673 31318659 31828678 32038774 32208919

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 3, 1:13 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Escambia, Mobile and 2 more	3 hr
Mar 3, 2:29 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Attala, Bolivar, Carroll, Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena and 9 more	3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.