Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 172

March 2, 20167 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 2, 2016, 9:39 PM CST for 7 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 2, 2016, 9:39 PM CST (03:39 UTC)
Expired
Mar 3, 2016, 12:15 AM CST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Coal County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Seminole County, OK

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2016-03-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2016-03-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 181 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2547 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
181 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
391 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

896 
ACUS11 KWNS 030339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030339 
OKZ000-030615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 PM CST WED MAR 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 030339Z - 030615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS STORMS MOVE FROM SCNTRL OK INTO
SE OK. A FEW GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING JUST AHEAD
OF THE VORTICITY MAX WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED.
THE STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF A 40 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. ALTHOUGH A SHARP SFC INVERSION IS PRESENT...MOISTURE ADVECTION
ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000-1200 J/KG IN SE OK
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-55 KT AND
STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM...SHOULD RESULT IN STORM
ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL FORMATION WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.
ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IS0LATED.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34349582 34579662 34719711 35079739 35339702 35019570
            34489497 34139518 34349582

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.