Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1702

September 16, 2016De Baca County, Guadalupe County, Lincoln County, New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 16, 2016, 4:58 PM MDT for De Baca County, Guadalupe County, Lincoln County, New Mexico. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 16, 2016, 4:58 PM MDT (22:58 UTC)
Expired
Sep 16, 2016, 6:30 PM MDT
In force
92 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Lincoln County, NM

The radar

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 199 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2016-09-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 144 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2016-09-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 57 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
144 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-190 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1747 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
57 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
50 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

667 
ACUS11 KWNS 162259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162258 
NMZ000-170030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 162258Z - 170030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ECNTRL NM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WW ISSUANCE IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREATS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH OVER SCNTRL NM
WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH
OVER SE NM WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F.
A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE
NWRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE BY RAP DATA. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN ECNTRL NM HAVE 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6
KM SHEAR WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN TH 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM RANGE.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STORM ROTATION IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES/DARROW.. 09/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33740390 33380499 33730574 34580572 34900496 34740397
            33740390

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.