Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1685
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 14, 2016, 1:33 PM EDT for 6 states. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 14, 2016, 1:33 PM EDT (17:33 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 14, 2016, 3:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 25 counties
Berkshire County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Cheshire County, NH, Sussex County, NJ, Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Pike County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, Bennington County, VT, Windham County, VT
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 972 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 162 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 164 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
260
ACUS11 KWNS 141733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141733
NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...SERN NY...SRN VT...NWRN CT...WRN
MA...SWRN NH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141733Z - 141900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS
FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING CONVECTION
ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN PA...ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF
THE INFLUENCE OF A DIFFUSE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN
WAVE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM ERN PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR
AND BUOYANCY SOMEWHAT LIMITED...DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SPLITTING STORMS WITH
SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30-50 KT AND WEAK
INVERTED-V STRUCTURES IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 20-30 F
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY FAVOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MODEST
BUOYANCY AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS ONLY A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 09/14/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 42197236 41837268 41197420 40967571 41217696 41497711
41677636 42087512 42517424 43217274 43217225 42987199
42597198 42197236Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.