Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 167

March 1, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 1, 2016, 4:51 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 114 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 1, 2016, 4:51 PM CST (22:51 UTC)
Expired: Mar 1, 2016, 6:45 PM CST
In force: 114 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 60%

All 72 counties

Autauga County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Perry County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Barrow County, GA, Carroll County, GA, Clayton County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Coweta County, GA, DeKalb County, GA, Douglas County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Haralson County, GA, Heard County, GA, Henry County, GA, Paulding County, GA, Polk County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Walton County, GA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Marion County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS

The radar

The Birmingham radar (KBMX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34Mar 1, 5:25 PM CST

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 23 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -70 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 896 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 72 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 91 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

980 
ACUS11 KWNS 012251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012251 
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-020045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 012251Z - 020045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STILL MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE
THIS EVENING FROM PARTS OF NWRN GA TO ERN LA. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A LOCALIZED HAIL RISK ON THE SWRN END
OF THE ELONGATED CONVECTIVE BAND.

DISCUSSION...TWO AREAS OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE ONGOING
ALONG AN ELONGATED NE/SW-ORIENTED COLD FRONT/REMNANT COLD POOL...ONE
ACROSS NRN AL AND THE OTHER OVER E-CNTRL LA. THE SWRN AREA IS
CURRENTLY POSING A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WITHIN A PLUME OF
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM AIR
MASS IS GENERALLY ENVELOPED IN A STRATOCU FIELD...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE AT LEAST WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS PER MODIFIED 19Z JAN RAOB.
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND INFLUENCE OF THE BROADER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN WLY 700-MB WINDS MAY
SUPPORT A MAINTENANCE OF A SHORT-LINE SEGMENT TO THE E ACROSS SRN MS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

FARTHER TO THE NE...BUOYANCY IS MEAGER PER 21Z BMX RAOB WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO UPPER
40S WITH ERN EXTENT. THIS MAY BE OFFSET BY COMPARATIVELY GREATER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ULTIMATELY SUSTAIN A
COUPLE SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 03/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   31609190 31119195 30829143 30788990 31078890 31938780
            32968547 33418405 33858358 34178381 34188427 33878634
            32608972 31609190

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 1, 1:42 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Autauga, Bibb, Calhoun, Chilton, Choctaw, Clay and 11 more	2 hr
Mar 1, 5:25 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Autauga, Barbour, Bibb, Bullock, Calhoun, Chambers and 26 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.