Mesoscale Discussion 1649

Issued

Sep 6, 2016, 2:00 PM MDT (20:00 UTC)

Expired

Sep 6, 2016, 4:30 PM MDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

100 
ACUS11 KWNS 062000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062000 
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-062230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NM...SERN CO...TX/OK
PANHANDLES...WRN/CNTRL KS...S-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 062000Z - 062230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A SFC FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM S-CNTRL NEB SWWD THROUGH
WRN KS AND INTO SERN CO...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE
STEEPENING S/SE OF THIS BOUNDARY OWING TO INSOLATION. THUS FAR...THE
MOST ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE SRN
ROCKIES AND VICINITY. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
PATCHY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND SE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM ERN CO
THROUGH WRN KS AND INTO S-CNTRL NEB -- WHERE MLCINH IS BECOMING
MINIMAL. FRONTAL ASCENT COMBINED WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NEWD FROM N-CNTRL NM/S-CNTRL CO
INTO/ACROSS PARTS OF KS...WITH MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER E AND ALSO SPREADING NEWD. STRONGER
DEEP SHEAR IS RELEGATED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY...THOUGH 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR COUPLED WITH 1500-2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW FORWARD-PROPAGATING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO OFFER AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL RISK. THE
LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT...AND LIMITED SPATIAL OVERLAP OF
STRONGER DEEP SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL LESSEN THE OVERALL SVR RISK.

..COHEN/HART.. 09/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36060390 36570451 37460451 38360244 39779984 40429884
            40369812 39439826 37360061 36140265 36060390

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.