Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1621
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 2, 2016, 3:29 PM EDT for 11 counties in North Carolina; Georgetown County, Horry County, Williamsburg County, South Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 2, 2016, 3:29 PM EDT (19:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 2, 2016, 6:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
Counties Brunswick County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Dare County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC
The radar
The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 403 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -11 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 534 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 33 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 89 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.7
The text
As transmitted.
106
ACUS11 KWNS 021929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021929
NCZ000-SCZ000-022200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN COASTAL SC...COASTAL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 021929Z - 022200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE SC AND MUCH OF NC.
DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST N OF
SAV AND IS MOVING NEWD AT ABOUT 16 TO 18 KT. GENERALLY NEWD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CENTER OF THE STORM EXPECTED TO
REACH CNTRL COASTAL SC /APPROX. 45 NNE OF CHS/ BY 00Z. MUCH OF THE
AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY STABLE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY EXISTS IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE CENTER WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 70S. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE AREAS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST AND THE THREAT FOR
TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC AND NE SC. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
SOON TO COVER THIS THREAT.
..MOSIER/HART.. 09/02/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 33608005 34767821 36027567 35287529 34957588 33927787
32957942 33608005SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 7:51 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brunswick, Columbus | 8 hr |
| Sep 2, 12:55 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, Robeson | 2 hr |
| Sep 2, 3:45 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven, Dare, Hyde and 5 more | 11 hr |
| Sep 1, 10:01 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Jasper | 2 hr |
| Sep 1, 10:47 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Allendale, Beaufort, Hampton, Jasper | 9 hr |
| Sep 2, 12:45 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allendale, Beaufort, Hampton, Jasper | 4 hr |
| Sep 2, 5:05 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Berkeley, Charleston, Colleton, Dorchester, Georgetown and 5 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.