Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1613
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 1, 2016, 2:15 PM EDT for 53 counties in North Carolina; 9 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 60 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 1, 2016, 2:15 PM EDT (18:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 1, 2016, 3:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 60 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 62 counties
Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Gates County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Martin County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Orange County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Brunswick County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, Greensville County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Southampton County, VA
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 36 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 375 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -100 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 974 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 40 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 59 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
483
ACUS11 KWNS 011816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011815
NCZ000-VAZ000-011915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011815Z - 011915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA AND WILL POSE A VERY ISOLATED WIND/TREE DAMAGE
THREAT THROUGH SUNSET.
DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE BOTH FAIRLY MEAGER...JUST ENOUGH
FLOW ALOFT /20-40 KTS IN THE 6-9KM LAYER/ WILL EXIST FOR ONGOING
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS TO POSE A SPORADIC WIND THREAT AS THEY
MOVE/PROPAGATE TO THE EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH SUNSET...AFTER WHICH ANY LINGERING THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH DUE TO AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
..COOK/GUYER.. 09/01/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 35698271 35938227 36198130 36477981 36757889 36907771
36897686 36817623 36557597 36167641 35707726 35357808
35137874 34947949 35038025 35218096 35348164 35418219
35448232 35698271Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.