Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1602

August 27, 201627 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 27, 2016, 3:35 PM EDT for 27 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 27, 2016, 3:35 PM EDT (19:35 UTC)
Expired: Aug 27, 2016, 5:30 PM EDT
In force: 115 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 27 counties

Ashland County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Erie County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Huron County, OH, Knox County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Madison County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Richland County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Union County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Wyandot County, OH

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1019 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -66 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1068 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 63 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

066 
ACUS11 KWNS 271935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271935 
OHZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 271935Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME WIND
DAMAGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TWO PARTS OF OH
/CENTRAL AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL/.  ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE FOR THE
CENTRAL OH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...A SLIGHT RISK AREA
WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE 20Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A SMALL
PART OF CENTRAL OH.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUED
TO SHOW TWO LINEAR MCS TRACKING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 30 KT. 
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OH PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALLOWED FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING...WHILE CU DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE
EROSION OF SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.  THE TWO AREAS OF STORMS APPEAR
TO EACH BE ATTENDANT TO SEPARATE MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST.

DESPITE SOME VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINES OF STORMS
POTENTIALLY WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE SOUTHWEST OH STORM COMPLEX AS
IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL OH...WHILE THE NORTH-CENTRAL OH STORMS MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39828222 39418280 39408342 39498391 39868387 40258387
            40878349 41238322 41678298 41728206 41138185 40428190
            39828222

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 27, 1:27 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Auglaize, Brown, Butler, Champaign, Clark and 27 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.