Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 16
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 9, 2016, 8:03 PM EST for 31 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 9, 2016, 8:03 PM EST (01:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 10, 2016, 2:00 AM EST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 31 counties
Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Clare County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 688 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 90 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 280 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
356
ACUS11 KWNS 100104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100103
MIZ000-100700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CST SAT JAN 09 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 100103Z - 100700Z
SUMMARY...SNOWFALL MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIME TONIGHT...WITH RATES
NEARING 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL WILL BE AROUND 03Z-09Z.
DISCUSSION...SNOWFALL HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...RAIN
WAS STILL OCCURRING WITH WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS AROUND 34-36 DEGREES.
HERE...IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW...BUT
SHOULD DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES
SOUTHWARD. AS 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES OVERNIGHT...SNOWFALL
INTENSITY SHOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE...AND RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 04Z-10Z TIME FRAME.
..LEITMAN.. 01/10/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 44778323 44448323 44208341 43778392 43238474 42928531
42808560 42748587 42768608 42848632 43048642 43448655
43668658 44058657 44678624 45038519 45258394 45278348
45178333 44948322 44778323Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.