Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 155

February 29, 2016Keya Paha County, Nebraska; 9 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 29, 2016, 1:06 PM CST for Keya Paha County, Nebraska; 9 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 24 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 29, 2016, 1:06 PM CST (19:06 UTC)
Expired
Feb 29, 2016, 1:30 PM CST
In force
24 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Keya Paha County, NE, Gregory County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Mellette County, SD, Pennington County, SD, Todd County, SD, Tripp County, SD

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 140 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KRAP), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2016-02-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2016-02-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -91 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2339 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-62 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

338 
ACUS11 KWNS 291907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291906 
SDZ000-NEZ000-291930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 291906Z - 291930Z

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED REGION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES UP TO 1"/HR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
---INCLUDING THE I-90 CORRIDOR --- THROUGH MID- TO LATE-AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL
HUMIDITY.

DISCUSSION...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A
SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD-FRONT ALOFT.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO BELOW FREEZING BELOW MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEWEY TO
MARTIN...THEN CUTTING SOUTHEASTWARD TO AINSWORTH AND O'NEILL NE. A
MESOSCALE WAVE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE EVIDENT IN RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES...AND THE
LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT IN WAA WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT/TRANSLATION OF
THE NARROW HEAVY SNOW BANDS INTO THE MCD AREA. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW IS THE SUB SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT
BY SUBLIMATION OF PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SNOW BANDS. HOWEVER...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWFALL RATES MOSTLY DIMINISHING TO UNDER
1"/HR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..CONIGLIO/GOSS.. 02/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   44320274 44370133 44260015 43819924 43229882 42789906
            42729963 43030061 43400182 43430212 43590270 43710299
            44050300 44320274

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.