Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1539

August 15, 20167 counties in Indiana; 12 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 15, 2016, 4:51 PM EDT for 7 counties in Indiana; 12 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 15, 2016, 4:51 PM EDT (20:51 UTC)
Expired: Aug 15, 2016, 6:15 PM EDT
In force: 84 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Rush County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Madison County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Preble County, OH, Warren County, OH

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 54 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 45 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -154 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1003 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -111 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -81 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

476 
ACUS11 KWNS 152052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152051 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-152215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW OH...SE INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 152051Z - 152215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO AND A COUPLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED WARM SECTOR STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS SW
OH/SE INDIANA THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...NEAR AND JUST S OF A SURFACE WARM
FRONT.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE NEAR
1500 J/KG.  LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.  THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE
THREAT AND EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE SUGGEST THAT A WATCH WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

..THOMPSON.. 08/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...

LAT...LON   39998509 40158440 40138359 39928322 39558306 39308326
            39168382 39058473 39118530 39408562 39658545 39998509

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.