Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1513
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 10, 2016, 3:52 PM CDT for 22 counties in Iowa; Jackson County, Minnesota. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 10, 2016, 3:52 PM CDT (20:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 10, 2016, 5:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 23 counties
Boone County, IA, Buena Vista County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Greene County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Madison County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Polk County, IA, Sac County, IA, Story County, IA, Warren County, IA, Webster County, IA, Wright County, IA, Jackson County, MN
The radar
The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2010 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -74 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1074 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 121 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 136 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
008
ACUS11 KWNS 102052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102052
IAZ000-MNZ000-102245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN IA...FAR SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 102052Z - 102245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE/UPPER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL IA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE TOWERS EXTENDING NWD INTO
S-CNTRL MN. OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT SFC CONVERGENCE IS VERY
WEAK...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF SUBTLE CONFLUENCE NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. REGARDLESS...WITH AROUND 2500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND
AROUND 20-25 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SOME CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENT OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION WERE TO BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE SFC. AN ISOLATED DMGG
WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A 53-KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT THE DES MOINES IA ASOS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TSTM.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...DEARTH OF SFC
CONVERGENCE...MODEST NATURE OF DEEP SHEAR...A SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
SVR RISK IS UNLIKELY.
..COHEN/DARROW.. 08/10/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 41229405 41849495 43109554 43759516 43669459 43039392
41849310 41319330 41229405SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 10:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Big Stone, Chippewa, Clay, Douglas, Grant, Lac qui Parle and 8 more | 8 hr |
| Aug 10, 1:05 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Stone, Lac qui Parle, Swift, Traverse | 55 min |
| Aug 10, 3:30 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anoka, Benton, Big Stone, Chisago, Douglas, Grant and 20 more | 60 min |
| Aug 10, 4:02 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aitkin, Benton, Cass, Chisago, Crow Wing, Isanti and 7 more | 4 hr |
| Aug 10, 11:19 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin | 2 hr |
| Aug 10, 1:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Becker, Big Stone, Clay, Douglas, Grant, Lac qui Parle and 8 more | 7 hr |
| Aug 10, 3:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Big Stone, Cass, Chippewa, Clay, Crow Wing and 14 more | 2 hr |
| Aug 10, 4:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anoka, Benton, Carver, Chisago, Hennepin, Isanti and 13 more | 26 min |
| Aug 10, 4:20 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aitkin, Anoka, Benton, Carlton, Carver, Cass and 17 more | 5 hr |
| Aug 10, 6:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aitkin, Anoka, Benton, Carlton, Cass, Chisago and 15 more | 66 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.