Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 15

January 9, 2016Collier County, Hendry County, Lee County, Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 9, 2016, 7:07 PM EST for Collier County, Hendry County, Lee County, Florida. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 9, 2016, 7:07 PM EST (00:07 UTC)
Expired
Jan 9, 2016, 8:00 PM EST
In force
53 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties Collier County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Lee County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 167 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2016-01-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 65 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2016-01-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 176 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
65 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
841 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
176 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
257 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

285 
ACUS11 KWNS 100008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100007 
FLZ000-100100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 100007Z - 100100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONG CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA...WSWWD INTO THE
CNTRL GULF BASIN.  OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SEVERAL DISTINCT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE PROGRESSED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND ONE
PARTICULARLY STRONG STORM WITH SUBSTANTIAL ROTATION HAS MOVED INLAND
OVER LEE COUNTY.  

LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE
SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM.  IT APPEARS THIS
WSW-ENE ORIENTED MCS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING.  NUMEROUS SMALLER DISCRETE STRUCTURES
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME
TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SEASONALLY MOIST LOW
LEVELS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..DARROW/MEAD.. 01/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON   26048321 26498233 26858132 26688058 26068055 25568284
            26048321

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.