Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1237

July 10, 201618 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 10, 2016, 4:53 PM CDT for 18 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 67 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 10, 2016, 4:53 PM CDT (21:53 UTC)
Expired: Jul 10, 2016, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 95%

Counties Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grant County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Wells County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 369Jul 10, 5:15 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -743 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1955 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

497 
ACUS11 KWNS 102153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102153 
NDZ000-SDZ000-102300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 102153Z - 102300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OVER WRN ND MOVING EWD TOWARDS
CNTRL ND.

DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL /PER MRMS MESH DATA/ IS APPROACHING ERN PORTIONS OF SVR
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368...ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ND. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPWARD INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THIS
AREA...AND MERGERS/INTERACTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS SHOULD LEAD TO
EVOLUTION INTO A CLUSTER OR MCS ACROSS CNTRL ND. THE 19Z BIS
SOUNDING INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL CINH REMAINS PRESENT...BUT A MODESTLY
INCREASING LLJ THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION EWD ACROSS CNTRL
ND...WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. A NEW
SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED...AND WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED SOON.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   47910213 48160009 47929848 46709799 45929843 46080205
            47910213

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 9, 8:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barnes, Burleigh, Cass, Dickey, Emmons, Foster and 15 more	5 hr
Jul 9, 10:44 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barnes, Cass, Dickey, Emmons, Foster, Griggs and 9 more	91 min
Jul 10, 2:19 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Billings, Bowman, Dunn, Golden Valley, McKenzie, Slope and 1 more	86 min
Jul 10, 2:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Dunn, Golden Valley, Hettinger and 3 more	7 hr
Jul 10, 5:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barnes, Benson, Bottineau, Burke, Burleigh, Cavalier and 29 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.