Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1192

July 7, 20165 counties in Oklahoma; 23 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 7, 2016, 4:59 PM CDT for 5 counties in Oklahoma; 23 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 7, 2016, 4:59 PM CDT (21:59 UTC)
Expired
Jul 7, 2016, 7:30 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 28 counties

Beckham County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Borden County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Foard County, TX, Garza County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-07-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 222 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-07-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 95 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
222 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-503 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
3104 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
95 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
165 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

606 
ACUS11 KWNS 072159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072159 
OKZ000-TXZ000-080030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLES AND S PLAINS INTO FAR WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 072159Z - 080030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY HOT AIR MASS EXISTS WITHIN A BROAD SFC
TROUGH FROM THE PANHANDLES SWWD ACROSS WRN TX WITH TEMPERATURES IN
EXCESS OF 105 F AND A DEEPLY-MIXED BL. A LARGE HIGH-BASED CU FIELD
WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS WELL WITH ONLY WEAK RADAR
ECHOES. HOWEVER...MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE EXISTS FROM WRN OK INTO
NWRN TX WITH MID 60S F DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE.
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO BECOME
UNCAPPED...AND TCU ARE ALREADY NOTED ON VIS IMAGERY SW OF CDS AS OF
22Z. WITH TIME...A SW-NE ORIENTED ZONE OF SCATTERED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM...AND A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS.

..JEWELL/HART.. 07/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33070228 33990138 34590113 35350093 35880036 36179938
            35909902 35039928 34369947 33639968 33140000 32690094
            32650192 32700216 33070228

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 6, 8:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGreer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman63 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.