Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1124
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 3, 2016, 2:38 PM MDT for 22 counties in North Dakota; 11 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 3, 2016, 2:38 PM MDT (20:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 3, 2016, 4:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 33 counties
Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Renville County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Ward County, ND, Williams County, ND, Butte County, SD, Corson County, SD, Custer County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Harding County, SD, Lawrence County, SD, Meade County, SD, Pennington County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Ziebach County, SD
The radar
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 894 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
558
ACUS11 KWNS 032039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032038
SDZ000-NDZ000-032245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032038Z - 032245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION MAY POSE A
MARGINAL STRONG/GUSTY WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...20Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ND ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC LEE
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE BLACK
HILLS OF WRN SD. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DESTABILIZATION HAS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE
GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5-7.5 DEG C/KM PER 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM BISMARCK ND AND RAPID CITY SD AND 19Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 500-2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE MCD AREA ARE REASONABLE. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALSO ENCOURAGE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS
AROUND 35-40 KT AND SIMILAR EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING
STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 49030098 47520039 45850024 43850180 43250361 43580398
45910399 47910400 49010397 49030098Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.