Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1113
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 2, 2016, 12:54 PM EDT for 43 counties in North Carolina; Marlboro County, South Carolina; 9 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 2, 2016, 12:54 PM EDT (16:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 2, 2016, 3:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 53 counties
Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Anson County, NC, Beaufort County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Greene County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Marlboro County, SC, Carroll County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Henry County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -84 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1271 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -40 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 56 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.4
The text
As transmitted.
537
ACUS11 KWNS 021654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021654
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-021900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NC...SOUTHWEST VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 021654Z - 021900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FORM ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF SOUTHEAST NC AND FARTHER NORTHWEST ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER.
DISCUSSION...SMALL CBS /SHOWERS/ HAVE COMMENCED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
NEAR THE NORTHWEST NC/SOUTHWEST VA BORDER REGION AND OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHEAST NC NEAR A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
THE AIR MASS IS WARMEST/MORE UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN MODERATE MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES OVER THE REGION. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE POOR IN
12Z AREA RAOBS...THE ROBUST DIABATIC HEATING AMID RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THIN BUT MODERATE
BUOYANCY SOUTH AND WEAK BUOYANCY NORTH. THIS SETUP MAY YIELD
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS AND EVENTUALLY
MODEST CLUSTERING /PERHAPS FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NC/
WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 36248154 36738082 37038013 36967941 36667922 36157927
35767890 35467787 35607692 35557633 35217616 34897649
34487821 34417896 34647996 35138057 35908155 36248154Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.