Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 110

February 16, 20164 counties in Georgia; 4 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2016, 1:41 AM EST for 4 counties in Georgia; 4 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 64 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 16, 2016, 1:41 AM EST (06:41 UTC)
Expired
Feb 16, 2016, 2:45 AM EST
In force
64 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Bryan County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Beaufort County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Hampton County, SC, Jasper County, SC

The radar

The Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 00:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Charleston AFB, SC at 00:00Z on 2016-02-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 52 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Charleston AFB, SC at 00:00Z on 2016-02-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 213 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
52 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-37 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
931 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
213 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
327 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

155 
ACUS11 KWNS 160641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160641 
SCZ000-GAZ000-160745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA / SC LOWCOUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 160641Z - 160745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE
CONFINED TO SERN GA AND THE SC LOWCOUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE REGION SHOWS A MATURE QLCS FROM
THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER NNEWD THROUGH THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CNTRL SC.  THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AL/GA BORDER VICINITY AND INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO.  AS THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK
--CONFIRMED THUS FAR IN REGIONAL 88D VAD DATA-- AND STRENGTHEN AND
BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SSW.  THE ORIENTATION OF THE
LINE OVER GA HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED AND ORTHOGONAL TO
THE MEAN LOW- TO MID-TROPOPHERIC WINDS DURING THE PAST HOUR. 
DESPITE THE AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SC
LOWCOUNTRY BEING ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...THE STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE SQUALL LINE ORIENTATION MAY LEND
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 02/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...

LAT...LON   31778172 32288170 32958117 33078048 32838004 31688118
            31778172

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 7:55 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Brooks, Calhoun, Chattahoochee, Clay, Colquitt and 25 more2 hr
Feb 15, 8:07 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBaker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brooks, Calhoun, Clay and 20 more5 hr
Feb 15, 10:32 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBen Hill, Berrien, Brooks, Colquitt, Cook, Decatur and 10 more58 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.