Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1065

June 27, 20164 counties in Colorado; 17 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 27, 2016, 3:39 PM MDT for 4 counties in Colorado; 17 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 27, 2016, 3:39 PM MDT (21:39 UTC)
Expired
Jun 27, 2016, 5:15 PM MDT
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 21 counties

Cheyenne County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2016-06-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1314 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2016-06-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 15 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1314 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-73 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1098 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
34 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

295 
ACUS11 KWNS 272140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272139 
KSZ000-COZ000-272315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL CO / WRN AND SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302...

VALID 272139Z - 272315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THE EXISTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.  HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
LIKELY /80 PERCENT/ TO THE SOUTH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCING OUTFLOW LOCATED FROM 55 MI SSE GLD TO
45 MI SW ITR AND THEN NWD INTO NERN CO.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPS SOUTH OF THE STORMS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR GCK TO THE LOWER 50S IN SERN CO.  AS A
RESULT...SIZABLE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOCATED TO THE S OF
THE SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER.  

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RAP MODEL DATA INDICATE W-CNTRL INTO SWRN KS
WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  FURTHERMORE...THE ADEQUATELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL PROMOTE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. 
IF A SUPERCELL CAN BE MAINTAINED ACROSS W-CNTRL KS...THE THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL /2 INCHES OR GREATER IN DIAMETER/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

..SMITH.. 06/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37600267 38310313 39380308 39430028 38689998 37890001
            37470044 37380184 37600267

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 27, 12:36 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLogan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Weld and 1 more54 min
Jun 27, 1:22 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCBoulder, Larimer, Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick and 2 more8 hr
Jun 27, 1:50 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCheyenne, Kit Carson, Yuma6 hr
Jun 27, 3:59 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaca, Bent, Kiowa, Prowers5 hr
Jun 27, 4:00 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Boulder, Broomfield, Larimer, Logan, Morgan and 4 more60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.