Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1049

June 24, 2016Fallon County, Richland County, Wibaux County, Montana; 23 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 24, 2016, 8:54 PM MDT for Fallon County, Richland County, Wibaux County, Montana; 23 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 24, 2016, 8:54 PM MDT (02:54 UTC)
Expired: Jun 24, 2016, 10:30 PM MDT
In force: 96 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 26 counties

Fallon County, MT, Richland County, MT, Wibaux County, MT, Benson County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burke County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Towner County, ND, Walsh County, ND, Ward County, ND, Williams County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297Jun 24, 9:25 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2684 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -92 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2083 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 159 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 214 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 7.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

766 
ACUS11 KWNS 250254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250254 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-250430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN MONTANA...WESTERN THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296...

VALID 250254Z - 250430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 296 IN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING LINEAR COMPLEX WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS /AND A FEW SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS/ AND HAIL CONTINUES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.  THESE STORMS ARE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MATURE COLD POOL...WITH 6-9MB PER TWO
HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS. 
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE QUICKLY EASTWARD AT AROUND 45-50 KNOTS
INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SEVERE-WIND THREAT SUPPORTED BY A
WEAKLY CAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND MODERATELY SHEARED
DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL NECESSITATE A NEW WW
ISSUANCE WITHIN THE HOUR.

DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER NORTHERN ROLETTE COUNTY NORTH DAKOTA. 
DESPITE COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COMPLEX GIVEN
STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA
BORDER AREA.

ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTHWEST OF THE ONGOING
LINEAR COMPLEX ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA.  THE
ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR A SEVERE THREAT
AS AREAS TO THE NORTH GIVEN LOWER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. 
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IF IT CAN ORGANIZE AND MATURE WHILE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.

..COOK/EDWARDS.. 06/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   46670270 46530309 45920387 45770450 46180500 46500489
            46890466 47660485 48440486 48930399 49050288 49090172
            49120064 49149955 49029847 48879783 48639745 48279739
            48009797 47809910 47690086 47360172 47090221 46880226
            46670270

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 24, 7:06 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Daniels, Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Prairie, Richland and 4 more	114 min
Jun 24, 11:04 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Custer, Fallon	116 min
Jun 24, 9:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Benson, Bottineau, Burleigh, Cavalier, Eddy, Foster and 23 more	7 hr
Jun 25, 1:59 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cavalier, Pembina, Ramsey, Walsh	91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.