Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
348 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will strengthen across the Great
Basin today, then shift east as a storm system enters the Pacific
Northwest late in the week. Moisture working north ahead of the
storm system will reach Utah for Friday into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 06Z Sunday)...Ridge axis has moved over the
forecast area this afternoon, resulting in increasingly dry and
stable conditions. Satellite derived PW values are as high as 0.7
inch, however, indicating some moisture is lingering. This has
resulted in a few showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the
higher terrain, and the threat of convection continues through the
early evening. Temperatures remain quite warm, with maxes running in
excess of 10F above seasonal norms.

As a storm system moves onshore tomorrow along the Pacific Northwest
coast, the ridge axis will shift eastward. This will allow southerly
flow to increase over the forecast area, with the strongest winds
over western Utah. The airmass will continue to dry so coverage of
afternoon convection should be even less than today. However, by
late Friday the southerly flow is expected to draw moisture
northward into the forecast area, allowing the potential for showers
and thunderstorms to increase through the first half of the weekend.

.LONG TERM (After 06Z Sunday)...Trends in globals over the last
several runs indicate a cool down late weekend into early next week
as the mean long wave trough over the PacNW ejects northeast
into the northern rockies. Extent of amplification of this wave
and its track continue to show fairly significant spread, and the
resultant thermal gradient and extent of CAA accompanying the
cold front vary. Last few runs of the GFS continue to depict a
strong cold front crossing northern Utah Sunday afternoon from a
higher amplitude progressive wave vs. the the EC which splits the
trough hard down the west coast eventually merging with a
weakness over SoCal forming a near closed feature over the desert
southwest. With these differences said, confidence in details in
either remains quite low, but a cool down is expected by Monday
(most likely dropping near climo).

Areal extent of precip potential varies as well, with the GFS
mostly confined to the frontal forcing over the north and the EC
more broad in coverage and tied to the southern wave. Opting to
hold onto only slight chance PoPs Sun/Mon and largely tied to
terrain until guidance trends more consistent regarding larger
scale features.

Thereafter a dry southwesterly flow is anticipated through
midweek as the next trough amplifies over the PacNW once again.
Fairly decent confidence in this, with temps likely trending to
warm well above climo once again.

&&

.AVIATION...Operational weather concerns are expected to remain
minimal at the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period.
Northwesterly surface winds in place are anticipated to shift to
the southeast between 03-04z per norm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure has moved over the district, resulting
in generally dry conditions with light winds. The ridge axis will
shift east beginning tomorrow ahead of an approaching storm system,
allowing for gusty southerly winds to develop. Isolated critical
fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow afternoon,
particularly over western Utah. The southerly winds will draw
moisture into the district Friday and Saturday, allowing for
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

Traphagan/Merrill

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
738 PM MDT WED JUN 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE CALLAO            39.95N 113.70W
06/08/2016  M58 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            CALLAO MESONET SITE

&&

LC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
739 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016

UTZ005-090215-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS UT-
739 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TOOELE COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM MDT...

AT 737 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 20 MILES EAST OF IBAPAH...OR 45 MILES
WEST OF DUGWAY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

MICROBURST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUGWAY.

LAT...LON 3991 11372 4025 11404 4051 11405 4050 11276
      3991 11253
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 242DEG 38KT 4006 11362

MPS