Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1043 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The forecast has been updated for the newly issued Severe
Thunderstorm Watch, which is in effect for Sutton, Menard,
Kimble, Mason and San Saba. The HRRR has been consistent
with indications for new convective development across the
southeastern part of our area toward Midnight.

Farther north, the Tornado Watch continues in effect until
Midnight. Once the convections clears those counties, early
Watch cancellation is possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 947 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...
The Tornado Watch has been cancelled for our Big Country counties,
and farther south to Coke and Tom Green Counties. PoPs were
adjusted and reduced based on the current placement of the
convection.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A strong to severe QLCS is moving east across the Big Country,
with the trailing portion across eastern Coke County. Other
scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing north of Ozona
and just west of San Angelo. The KABI ASOS recorded a 55 knot
wind gust at 644 pm. The QLCS will continue moving east through
the rest of the Big Country through late evening. Other storms
could develop further and strengthen near and southwest of San
Angelo. Addition thunderstorm development could occur into the
night farther east and south across west central Texas. Outside
of convective activity, VFR conditions are expected. All
convection should be out of west central Texas by 3 AM. Generally
clear skies are expected during the day Wednesday with west winds
10-15 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)

Large Hail and Damaging Winds and Tornadoes This Evening...

A dryline and strong upper dynamics will combine to continue
thunderstorms this evening. With surface based CAPE values around
4000 J/Kg across many of our eastern counties this afternoon, any
thunderstorms which develop will rapidly intensify. The dryline this
afternoon extends just west of a line from near Ozona to Sweetwater.
Thunderstorms have developed along and near this dryline and will
move into our western counties within an hour. Movement will be
toward the northeast. Based on all indicators, the greatest tornado
threat lies mainly along and northeast of a line from Haskell, to
Abilene, to Coleman, to Brownwood. In addition, very large hail is
possible northeast of this line. We have issued Tornado watch number
109, which continues until midnight CDT tonight, and includes those
counties lying along and east or northeast of a line from Haskell,
to Roby, to San Angelo, to San Saba. Later tonight, a Pacific cold
front will push from west to east across West Central Texas and
bring another round of thunderstorms. As this front moves across
West Central Texas, thunderstorms will form a line, and this line
will extend from north to south across most of West Central Texas.

(Wednesday)

Dry and Cooler...

The Pacific front will quickly push convection east of West Central
Texas and bring drier air, along with slightly cooler temperatures.
High tomorrow will be mainly in the mid to upper 80s. winds will be
mainly from the west in the 10 to 15 mph range.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Generally dry conditions are expected on Thursday ahead of the next
approaching upper level shortwave trough. High temperatures Thursday
afternoon are forecast to be in the upper 80s to near 90. Rain
chances will increase Thursday night across the area as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves closer and large scale lift
results in scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible.

Friday afternoon, a Pacific front will move through West Central
Texas, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along and
ahead of this feature. This will result in a better chance of strong
to severe thunderstorms, especially across the eastern half of the
forecast area. In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Highs on Friday will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s. Generally
dry conditions are expected this weekend, with highs mainly in the
upper 70s to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s.

The next upper level trough will approach the Southern Plains early
next week. Differences continue in the exact timing and track of
this system, but a wetter/cooler pattern looks likely for the first
part of next week.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 55  85  57  88 /  10   0   0  10
San Angelo 	 53  88  55  90 /  10   0   0  10
Junction 	 54  88  52  88 /  60   5   0  20

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-272100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE A VERY HIGH
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TORNADOES ARE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HASKELL...TO
ABILENE...TO COLEMAN...TO BROWNWOOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
ON SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE WILL NEED SPOTTERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 PM     HAIL             SONORA                  30.57N 100.64W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       SUTTON             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600092

MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1124 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     HAIL             SONORA                  30.57N 100.64W
04/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       SUTTON             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600093

MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1134 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     HAIL             SONORA                  30.57N 100.64W
04/26/2016  E2.50 INCH       SUTTON             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600094

MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1134 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

TXZ155-270500-
SAN SABA TX-
1134 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SAN SABA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1134 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CHAPPEL...OR
13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN SABA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BEND AROUND 1140 PM CDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3092 9871 3093 9871 3117 9866 3118 9854
      3117 9851 3112 9855 3109 9852 3112 9850
      3111 9846 3108 9846 3106 9849 3103 9844
      3101 9846 3099 9844 3096 9845 3093 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 264DEG 34KT 3104 9858

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1139 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

TXZ077-078-168-169-270530-
KIMBLE TX-SCHLEICHER TX-SUTTON TX-MENARD TX-
1139 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MENARD...NORTHEASTERN SUTTON...
SOUTHEASTERN SCHLEICHER AND NORTHWESTERN KIMBLE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230
AM CDT...

AT 1139 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FORT MCKAVETT...OR 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MENARD...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FORT MCKAVETT AROUND 1145 PM CDT.
  MENARD AROUND 1210 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE US-83 NEAR THE KIMBLE-
MENARD COUNTY LINE...THE INTERSECTION OF US-
83 AND RANCH ROAD 1773...CLEO...THE INTERSECTION OF US-
83 AND HIGHWAY 29 AND CAMP SOL MAYER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3086 10024 3109 9981 3108 9965 3062 9960
      3044 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 248DEG 46KT 3073 10017

JOHNSON