Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

An upper low is located over southeastern Arizona this afternoon
with the forecast area under a southwest flow aloft. A dryline is
located west of the forecast area and a slow moving cold front is
moving south through the central CWA. Storms have initiated this
afternoon over our southwestern counties along the cold front. A
severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect with the main hazards
being large hail and strong winds. Per the Storm Prediction Center
(SPC), a mesoscale convective system (MCS) is expected to evolve
later this evening over the central CWA and move southeasterly
across the forecast area. The chance of showers and thunderstorms
will remain over all of the forecast area through tomorrow. Lows
tonight behind the cold front and under rainy and cloudy skies will
be in the mid 50s over the Big Country and the upper 50s to around
60 degrees over the remainder of the forecast area. Afternoon highs
tomorrow will generally be in the mid to upper 60s with rain chances
continuing.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night trough Thursday Night)

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible South...

As this upper trough continues to interact with surface forcing
features, the potential for severe thunderstorms will continue for
these periods. The best timing for severe thunderstorms is mainly
from mid afternoon through the late evening hours. Currently,
large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning remain the
greatest hazards. However, tornadoes are always possible this time
of year. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will focus
mainly over our southern counties, south of the Interstate 20
corridor, Wednesday night and Thursday. Then, as the upper trough
moves over West Central Texas Thursday night, the focus will shift
to our eastern counties.

(Friday through Saturday)

...Dry...

As the upper trough moves east of West Central Texas, a short-wave
ridge will take its place. This ridge will give West Central Texas
a brief dry period, before another upper trough approaches from
the west. This ridge will also allow temperatures to rebound.
Thus, look for highs Friday and again on Saturday back in the 80s.

(Saturday night through Tuesday)

...More Rain...

Rain chances for the remainder of the long-term period continue to
look promising. Models remain in very good agreement and initiate
convection, late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, to our
west. With the potential for some showers and thunderstorms to
move into our western counties, will include slight chance PoPs
there for the Saturday night period. Then, as another deep upper
trough develops, across the western CONUS, resulting southwest
flow aloft will again enhance rain chances for the Sunday through
Tuesday periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 55  64  58  70 /  60  40  60  70
San Angelo 	 59  69  58  74 /  70  60  70  70
Junction 	 63  74  60  75 /  70  50  70  70

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
306 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-182015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
306 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
525 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXZ077-172330-
SCHLEICHER TX-
525 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SCHLEICHER COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 524 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF
FORT MCKAVETT...OR 15 MILES EAST OF ELDORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN SCHLEICHER
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: THE INTERSECTION OF US-190
AND RANCH ROAD 2084.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3084 10058 3109 10050 3109 10012 3086 10012
      3071 10046
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 229DEG 18KT 3081 10035

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
546 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXZ078-172315-
SUTTON TX-
546 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SUTTON COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

AT 546 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SONORA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN SUTTON
COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3061 10081 3061 10096 3070 10095 3070 10073
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 244DEG 7KT 3067 10087

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
554 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             6 S CHRISTOVAL          31.11N 100.50W
05/17/2016  E1.00 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600189

PM