Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
631 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along a surface
boundary from KJCT to KSOA and should continue for a few more
hours. Showers and/or thunderstorms were carried for these sites
through 02z with benign wx included during the overnight hours. A
complex of thunderstorms will move south across the Big Country
late tonight, but confidence is relatively low at all forecast
terminals outside of KABI, where VCTS was included for a few hours
around 12z.

A cold front will move south into the CWA early Saturday,
shifting winds from the northeast at 10-15 kts and resulting in
low clouds across the area. Low clouds were maintained all day at
KABI and KBBD, with VFR conditions included at the remaining sites
by midday. Additional convection will be possible in the vicinity
of this cold front tomorrow. Rain chances favor the southern
terminals, where a VCSH was included.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon across mainly the southern half of West Central
Texas. Most of this convection is expected to dissipate shortly
after sunset. A cold front is forecast to approach the northern
Big Country after midnight, with showers and thunderstorms
developing along and ahead of the front. A complex of
thunderstorms may develop late this evening, somewhere across the
the Panhandle or the South Plains, then move south during the
early morning hours. A few of these storms may become strong to
severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
concerns. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, which
could exacerbate any flooding from rainfall earlier in the week.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s.

On Saturday, a cold front will be across the Big Country and
slowly move south, approaching the Interstate 10 corridor by mid
to late afternoon. Additional shower and thunderstorm development
is expected by early afternoon along and just behind the front.
Again, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with
large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. Locally
heavy rainfall will also be possible. High temperatures will range
from the upper 60s to near 70 across the Big Country to the low to
mid 80s across the Interstate 10 corridor.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

Unsettled weather will continue across West Central Texas through
much of the extended period. A stalled frontal boundary will
bisect the forecast area on Sunday and will be a focus for
convective development once again, aided by some weak disturbances
moving across the area into Sunday night. The best instability
and shear for Sunday afternoon and evening will be across
the Edwards Plateau south of the stalled front and this is where
the best potential for a few organized severe storms is expected.
The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. Convection
should remain elevated north of the front but still could see a
few strong to marginally severe storms capable of producing some
hail.

Southwest flow aloft will prevail across the Southern Plains
Monday through the middle of next week, ahead of a digging upper
level trough across the Intermountain West and southwest states.
This will result in periodic disturbances moving across the area
through the period. This combined with another front moving into
the area on Tuesday, will result in additional shower and
thunderstorm development through Wednesday.

The medium range models show the upper trough moving east from
the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains Wednesday night
into Thursday, which will keep rain chances in the forecast
through early Friday. The potential exists for some severe storms
across the area next week but at this time it is still too
premature to determine the extent and potential threats at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 63  72  56  69 /  70  50  40  60
San Angelo 	 65  80  60  74 /  40  50  40  60
Junction 	 66  85  62  77 /  10  40  30  50

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

Johnson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
320 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-142030-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
320 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. HEAVY
RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD FOR MOST OF
THOSE DAYS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
533 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

TXZ169-132300-
KIMBLE TX-
533 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KIMBLE COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM CDT...

AT 533 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JUNCTION...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JUNCTION AROUND 545 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SOUTH LLANO RIVER
STATE PARK AND THE INTERSECTION OF I-10 AND U.S 83.

LAT...LON 3042 9978 3048 9993 3062 9983 3049 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 237DEG 19KT 3047 9983

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
648 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

TXZ078-140030-
SUTTON TX-
648 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUTTON COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

AT 648 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ROOSEVELT...OR 23 MILES NORTH OF ROCKSPRINGS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN SUTTON
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: US-277 NEAR THE
SUTTON-EDWARDS COUNTY LINE.

LAT...LON 3062 10057 3041 10012 3029 10012 3029 10069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 004DEG 10KT 3035 10022

JOHNSON

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