Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
635 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening along and east
of a Coleman to San Angelo to Ozona line. Will continue VCTS at
most of the terminals until 02-06Z and TEMPO groups at KBBD/KSJT.
The activity should begin decreasing after 06Z. Otherwise,
stratus will return Wednesday morning across the southern 2/3 of
the area, with MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals, besides
KABI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

..Severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening...

The conditions are becoming favorable for severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The atmosphere was very unstable, east of
a dryline, across about the southeast half of the area. The
latest SPC mesoanalysis was indicating SBCAPES of 3000 to 4000
J/KG across mainly the Heartland...Northwest Hill
Country...Eastern Edwards Plateau and southeast Concho Valley.
The vertical wind shear is not a classic setup...with 0-6KM shear
values of 25 to 30 knots. The strong instability will compensate
the shear for mainly multicell storms...with a few supercells
possible. The main hazards from storm will be very large hail,
damaging winds and dangerous. Abilene and San Angelo are sitting
on the western edge of the severe weather risk. Going with slight
chance to chance Pops across much of the area tonight. Also, a
severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 10 PM for southern
and southeast parts of West Central Texas.

For Wednesday, The combination of some upper level forcing and a
surface warm/moist sector setting will being another chance of
thunderstorms Wednesday. The combination of moderate instability
and good vertical wind shear will result in a few storms possibly
being severe across mainly the Big Country Wednesday afternoon.
The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Will go
with slight chance to chance Pops across much of the area. Another
very warm day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night and Thursday)

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms through this
period along with cooler temperatures Thursday. The cold front
will move south across the area late Wednesday night and Thursday
along with possibly better coverage of elevated convection. Also,
upper level support may lead to the possibility of severe weather
Wednesday night across the Big Country. A few storms may be
severe, with the main threats large hail and damaging winds. Will
go with mainly chance Pops across the area.

(Thursday Night through Tuesday)

An unsettled weather pattern will continue late this week through
this weekend. As a result, there will chance of rain through much of
this time frame. However, the coverage will be scattered so some
areas may not see much rainfall. Aloft, An upper level west-
northwest flow pattern will be over the Southern Plains on Friday
and going with a dry forecast. For this weekend, The next upper
trough will begin pushing into the western US and southwest flow
will return to the Southern Plains. At the surface, return flow
will commence as a dryline develops to the our west. The
combination of moderate instability in the warm sector and
disturbances moving across aloft will result a few rounds of
thunderstorms, and going with mainly chance Pops this weekend into
early next week. Highs will mainly be in the 80s, with lows in
the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 67  91  62  76 /  20  20  50  40
San Angelo 	 66  91  65  81 /  20  20  30  40
Junction 	 65  88  65  84 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

99/99/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
251 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-112000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
251 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERRSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ALONG
AND EAST OF BAIRD TO MERTZON TO OZONA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE VERY LARGE HAIL...LARGER THAN GOLF BALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR THURSDAY...WHILE IT
APPEARS THAT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE
LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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