Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS San Angelo, TX

660 
WWUS54 KSJT 230345
SVSSJT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
945 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

TXC095-451-230415-
/O.CON.KSJT.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160223T0415Z/
TOM GREEN TX-CONCHO TX-
945 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN TOM GREEN AND WESTERN CONCHO COUNTIES...

AT 945 PM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LOWAKE TO NEAR EOLA TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
VANCOURT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN TOM GREEN AND WESTERN CONCHO COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 380 AND RANCH
ROAD 381 AND VICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 10033 3158 10023 3157 9997 3111 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 273DEG 40KT 3152 10010 3136 10009 3121 10015 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
514 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for challenging flight weather for much of the next 24 hours.
Another cold front will push south across West Central Texas
tonight and bring gusty winds from the north. In addition, IFR to
MVFR ceilings will develop tonight. Thunderstorms, some possibly
with large hail, are also possible tonight, especially south of
our Interstate 20 corridor. For tomorrow, expect winds from the
north, with gusts in the 20 to 30 knots range.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

..There is a slight risk of severe storms tonight, with strong
north winds Tuesday...

An upper trough will move into West Texas tonight, closing off it
moves east across North Texas Tuesday. Enough instability will
be present for a few severe thunderstorms overnight, mainly south
of the I-20 corridor. The best instability is along and south of
Big Lake, to San Angelo, to Brady, to Mason line, where SPC has
outlooked a slight risk of severe storms. There is certainly no
shortage of shear with 0-6Km bulk shears in the 50 to 65 KT range.
The GFS model most unstable CAPES tonight are mainly in the 300 to
700 J/KG range south of I-20, with highest values up to 1100 J/KG
in Crockett county. The severe potential will likely continue
until 3 or 4 AM in the morning.

Tuesday, showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue in the
Big Country, as moisture wraps around the upper low as it heads
east across North Texas. Scattered showers farther south will
become isolated by midday. With weak instability, however, storms
will not be severe. The main impact Tuesday will be strong
northwest to north winds as a strong surface low developing in
Central Texas moves east. Winds will increase into the 20 to 30
mph range midday, and could be on the higher end of that range in
the mid/late afternoon. With strong cold advection and cloudy
skies, went towards the cooler GFS MOS guidance for highs Tuesday.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The upper-level trough will continue to pull off to the east
Tuesday night. Dry air will advect into the area as gusty north
winds continue throughout the evening. Wrap-around precipitation
will be possible across portions of the Big Country through
midnight, mainly to the north and east of Abilene. Point soundings
remain well above freezing through the lowest 3000 ft, keeping
the risk for wintry precipitation at a minimum. Wind speeds will
diminish to 10-15 mph after midnight, with cloud cover rapidly
decreasing.

Northwest winds early Wednesday, will back more from the west at
10-15 mph on Wednesday. This added downslope component, combined
with full insolation, will allow temperatures to top 60 degrees
across much of the CWA. Dry air will remain in place throughout
the overnight hours and with the boundary layer becoming strongly
decoupled, we anticipate good radiational cooling conditions
overnight. Low temperatures will be near freezing across most of
the area Thursday morning. In fact, some areas may fall into the
upper 20s around sunrise.

Northwesterly flow aloft will bring another shortwave trough
across the Plains on Thursday. This will result in a weak cold
front moving south into west central TX. It will have little
affect on temperatures, with highs expected to remain in the 60s.
The surface anticyclone will move east of the area on Thursday,
with southerly winds resuming. This will result in a warming trend
Friday into the weekend, with forecast highs in the 70s and lows
warming into the 40s.

The next reasonable chance for rain across the CWA looks to be
late in the weekend. A potent shortwave trough will dive
southeast across the Plains, driving another cold front through
the region. The 12z model runs move the front across the area
Sunday night, but are rather bleak on rain chances. The majority
of the QPF is east of the CWA, along the frontal zone from north
TX to the Great Lakes. PoPs were trimmed back to only include the
northeast 1/3 of the forecast area.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 43  47  36  60 / 100  80  10   0
San Angelo 	 46  49  36  62 /  90  20   5   0
Junction 	 51  55  36  61 /  90  20   5   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
206 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-232015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
206 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ALONG
AND SOUTH OF BIG LAKE...SAN ANGELO...BRADY...MASON LINE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL
AFFECT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY...FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. LAKE WATERS WILL BECOME CHOPPY AND DANGEROUS. A LIGHT
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS, PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AND VALLEY AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
829 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

TXZ098-099-230315-
THROCKMORTON TX-HASKELL TX-
829 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HASKELL AND
THROCKMORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CST...

AT 828 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
IRBY...OR 15 MILES WEST OF THROCKMORTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THROCKMORTON AROUND 855 PM CST.
  ELBERT AROUND 915 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE THE INTERSECTION OF
US-183 AND US-283 AND THE INTERSECTION OF US-380 AND HIGHWAY 222.

LAT...LON 3339 9896 3305 9895 3303 9952 3334 9958
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 259DEG 27KT 3317 9945

MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
913 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

TXZ076>078-230400-
SCHLEICHER TX-CROCKETT TX-SUTTON TX-
913 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SUTTON...SOUTHWESTERN
SCHLEICHER AND CROCKETT COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CST...

AT 907 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER
NORTHWEST SUTTON COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OZONA AROUND 940 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE US-190 NEAR THE
CROCKETT-SUTTON COUNTY LINE...I-10 NEAR THE CROCKETT-SUTTON COUNTY
LINE...THE INTERSECTION OF I-10 AND HIGHWAY 405.

LAT...LON 3029 10173 3030 10174 3034 10172 3034 10166
      3042 10174 3055 10165 3062 10166 3066 10177
      3076 10184 3092 10187 3099 10199 3098 10201
      3104 10205 3089 10066 3029 10068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 262DEG 39KT 3069 10159

MC