Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1214 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
to develop through early evening over most of the area, and
should dissipate through late evening. The best chance of
convective activity will be over the Big Country...will carry VCTS
at KABI for this afternoon. VFR conditions and light southeasterly
winds are expected at all terminals through the TAF period.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Occasional MVFR light fog and ceilings will rise to VFR late
morning. Added a VCTS at KABI mid-afternoon to early evening for
scattered thunderstorms. Southeast to south winds will otherwise
prevail at 10 KTS or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Afternoon heating combined with weak disturbances in southwest flow
aloft will be the main mechanism for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Short range model HRRR indicate the best chance
of storms in the Big Country along and north of the I-20 corridor
with more isolated storms south. The main weather impact will be
localized flooding as precipitable waters are in the 1.40 to 1.75
range in a tropical-like environment.

Temperatures today will be similar to Wednesday with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 and lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)

Looks like a chance of rain through the weekend across much of West
Central Texas. The combination of weak upper level disturbances
moving northeast, afternoon and early evening instability and
abundant tropical moisture(PW values 1.5 to 1.75 inches) will
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.
The best coverage of showers of storms will probably be across the
Big Country, northern Concho Valley and northern Heartland. The
storms will produce heavy rainfall, localized flooding and
dangerous lightning.

An upper level high pressure ridge will begin building across much
of Texas extending northeast into the mid Mississippi and Tennessee
valleys next week. This will bring a drying trend and warm
temperatures to West Central Texas. However, still keeping mainly
slight chance Pops going for Monday through Wednesday, mainly due to
some instability during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, upper level
forcing is weak and no significant front in the area. Highs will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s to around
70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 70  89  68  87 /  30  30  40  40
San Angelo 	 69  92  68  91 /  20  20  30  30
Junction 	 69  91  69  91 /  20  20  20  30
Brownwood 	 70  91  69  90 /  20  20  30  40
Sweetwater 	 69  89  68  87 /  30  30  50  30
Ozona      	 70  89  69  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

99/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
552 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-161100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
552 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD IS FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.