Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1258 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions have returned as ceilings have climbed above
3000ft during the past couple of hours at our TAF sites.
Convection with heavy rainfall is concentrated across the
northern big country and will remain north of KABI. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across much of
our area this afternoon and evening. Temporary reductions in
ceiling and visibility are possible in locally heavy rain.
Carrying VCSH at the TAF sites and will monitor radar trends for
updates. A degradation to MVFR conditions is expected again
after Midnight tonight. IFR ceilings will be possible at
mainly our southern TAF sites early Friday morning. Winds
will be mostly from the southeast and south.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Fairly extensive mid and upper level cloud cover as well as
scattered showers are causing low clouds to become patchy across
the area. However, will keep the MVFR CIGs going at all sites
through most of the morning hours. Will also keep a mention of
at least VCSH at most sites. Will not have prevailing RA in the
TAFs due to the scattered nature of the precipitation.
Thunderstorms may also affect the entire area again this afternoon
as the atmosphere becomes more unstable. VFR conditions may
briefly develop this afternoon/evening at most sites before MVFR
ceilings return again overnight. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
again today. Currently, there are scattered showers south and
southwest of the area. Radar imagery shows what appears to be at
least one MCV associated with this activity. With southwest flow
in place at the mid/upper levels, this MCV as well as embedded
weak disturbances will move across the area. Since there has been
vitually no change in the moisture-laden low levels, these
disturbances are expected to once again kick off showers and
thunderstorms by late morning or early afternoon. With moisture
also making better progress northward, expect to see some of this
activity make it north of Interstate 20 today as well. Some of the
activity will again be capable of heavy rainfall in a short period
of time, resulting in local flooding, especially in urban areas.
Since coverage is still not expected to be widespread, and
rainfall over the past days has been very spotty, will continue to
hold off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch. Expect temperatures
similar to yesterday's readings, or possibly a few degrees cooler.

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

Upper high pressure will be centered over the southeast CONUS
Friday resulting in a southwest flow aloft over the forecast area.
With good low to mid level moisture remaining entrenched over West
Central Texas and given periodic disturbances in the southwest
flow aloft over the forecast area, good rain chances will continue
for our area Friday.

By Friday night the upper flow over the forecast area will become
more zonal with rain chances diminishing. However, an upper trough
moving east across the northern Plains will push a weak cold front
south through the forecast area on Saturday thus increasing our
rain chances Saturday and Saturday night. The remnants of the cold
frontal boundary will remain stationary just south of the CWA into
the early part of next week. With decent low and mid level
moisture north of the frontal boundary and given periodic upper
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft moving over the boundary,
the chance of rainfall over the CWA will remain.

The continuation of good cloud cover accompanied by periodic
rainfall will continue to keep daytime temperatures below seasonal
normals with daily highs expected to be mostly in the mid to upper
80s through next Tuesday. By Wednesday rain chances will decrease
as upper high pressure builds into the area from the southeast and
our cloud cover diminishes. Daytime highs on Wednesday are
expected to warm into the lower 90s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 85  70  88  72 /  60  50  50  30
San Angelo 	 84  72  88  73 /  60  60  50  30
Junction 	 85  73  88  74 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
436 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-190945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
436 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.