Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1155 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Most thunderstorms have ended this evening. However, a weak upper
low remains just to the west of SJT area, with rain continuing to
the south and southwest. Expect to see continued light showers
overnight across southern and eastern TAF locations. Have kept
thunder out for the overnight hours, but will continue to monitor
in case convection strengthens overnight with the low level jet.
will also see mvfr ceilings developing again toward morning mainly
JCT and SOA airports, with scattered low clouds elsewhere. Winds
variable in direction from time to time due to multiple outflow
boundaries around, but generally southeast at less than 10 kt.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Main concern this TAF package is the possibility of thunderstorms
for SOA, SJT and JCT TAF locations through this evening.
Thunderstorms still ongoing to the west and south of SJT
associated with weak upper low over thew area. One outflow
boundary is racing east to SJT, with continued thunderstorm
development for at least the next few hours, if not longer. Winds
will be gusty and variable at times for the next several hours
from outflow. Will also see scattered low clouds by morning for
the southern half of the area, with brief MVFR ceilings possible
for JCT, BBD and SOA.

08

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A weak upper low over the Permian Basin west of Sterling and Irion
Counties should begin to drift to the south overnight and Monday,
and should be over or just north of the Big Bend region by Monday
evening. This to occur as the upper level high over the Four Corners
region strengthens somewhat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
with locally heavy rain this afternoon will decrease in coverage
this evening. We are carrying 20-40 PoPs tonight with the higher
rain chance across our western counties, in closer proximity to the
weak upper low.

Rain chances will be lower on Monday with a decrease in lower to mid
level moisture, but a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms remains
across the area generally west of an Abilene to Sonora line. With
decreased cloud cover in the afternoon, temperatures on Monday should
reach highs in the lower to mid 90s across all of west central Texas.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

Models indicate that whatever is left of the TUTT low across the
area this afternoon will be drifting back to the southwest by
Monday Night, as the upper level ridge centered over Utah
strengthens. Weak shortwave will be riding this periphery of this
ridge, producing an area of convection across Kansas and Oklahoma
that will ride south into Texas late Monday Night into Tuesday.
Models continue to go back and forth with the strength of the
ridge axis and whether it will be strong enough to keep the
convection farther east or allow it to drop into West Central
Texas. At this point, will remain closer to the wetter solution,
with best chances across the Heartland and eastern Big Country.

For the remainder of the week, the upper level high pressure ridge
axis settles into the area. This may leave the northern Big
Country along the edge of the storm track as shortwaves rotate
around the edge. Will keep the PoPs in place as far south as I-20
for Friday with the strongest wave, but keep in confined to
Haskell and Throckmorton counties the remainder of the time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 73  93  72  92 /  20  20  20  30
San Angelo 	 71  93  70  92 /  30  20  10  20
Junction 	 71  93  72  92 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
313 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-280815-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
313 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS PRIMARILY CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HAVE ATTENDANT
HAZARDS OF SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND MINOR FLOODING FOR
MOTORISTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS ON TUESDAY. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HAVE ATTENDANT HAZARDS OF SHARPLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND MINOR FLOODING FOR MOTORISTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1003 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

TXZ076-270345-
CROCKETT TX-
1003 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY
UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1003 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 20 MILES NORTH OF
PANDALE...OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OZONA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CROCKETT COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: THE INTERSECTION
OF RANCH ROAD 2083 AND HIGHWAY 405 AND THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY
163 AND RANCH ROAD 1973.

LAT...LON 3029 10176 3034 10172 3034 10166 3038 10170
      3040 10169 3042 10174 3044 10172 3046 10173
      3047 10169 3052 10168 3055 10165 3063 10165
      3072 10097 3029 10096
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 317DEG 14KT 3046 10144