Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

MCS in the Permian Basin and Big Country was developing southeast
into the Concho Valley early this morning. HRRR seems to have
the best handle on the storm complex, which pushes it through much
of West Central Texas this morning. Thus, there are higher pops
than indicated by most of the other models.

The main threat is locally heavy rainfall. Midland received 2.37
inches of rainfall between 1 and 3 AM, but anticipate rainfall
amounts less than 1 inch as the storm complex weakens and
dissipates this morning. MUCAPES are around 2000 J/KG so a few
strong storms are possible. Rain chances this afternoon should be
lower with morning convection stabilizing the atmosphere. Kept a
slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms in however,
allowing for some recovery.

Morning showers will keep temperatures down slightly, but
anticipate a quick recovery, with partly cloudy skies this
afternoon. Temperatures should rise to highs in the lower 90s.

Tonight, continued a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the Big County, associated with a weak upper low. Otherwise dry
conditions expected as an upper ridge strengthens over the region.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

We'll be under the influence of shortwave ridging aloft through
much of the day Monday in advance of a progressive shortwave
trough moving east across the Southern Rockies. This trough will
lift northeast into the Plains Monday night into Tuesday as a
stronger trough spins over the PacNW. Despite the ridging aloft,
we anticipate the potential for a few diurnal showers and
thunderstorms over west Texas Monday through Wednesday. These
storms will largely remain to the west of the CWA over the Permian
Basin, but weak, westerly steering winds may allow some of this
convection to move into the far western portion of the area during
the late afternoon and evening hours. PoPs are mainly confined to
areas west of a San Angelo to Abilene line Monday and Tuesday, but
do extend slightly farther east into the CWA on Wednesday. That
said, a significant majority of the area will remain hot and dry
each day with generally partly cloudy skies.

The low-level thermal ridge will build east with time over the
upcoming work-week. The upper-level ridge will be building over
the Four Corners later in the week, building northeast into the
Central Plains. This should promote generally hot and dry weather
for Thursday and Friday, with steadily climbing temperatures.
Temps at 850mb are progged to warm a few degrees through Friday,
with the GFS the warmest at a balmy 30C. The ECMWF is a bit more
reasonable, with 850mb temps in the ballpark of 27C.With adiabatic
low-level lapse rates, that could mean the difference between
highs of 97F vs 103F.

It's worth noting that the GEFS 850mb temperature anomalies for
this period are on the order of 4 standard deviations above the
norm, or in the top 1% of climatology. The NAEFS anomalies aren't
quite as impressive, although still in the top 10%. Either way,
we're looking at the warmest temperatures so far this year. Given
the anomalously moist soil and evapotranspiration from abundant
vegetation, we are siding toward the cooler side of guidance,
keeping max temperatures under the century mark for the most part.
We may have a few locations hit triple digits later this week, but
most of the area should see highs in the mid to upper 90s. Low
temperatures will follow suit, largely remaining in the low to mid
70s.

By the weekend, there is a little less certainty in the forecast.
With the ridge centered over the Central High Plains, both the
ECMWF and GFS are indicating a wave approaching West Central TX
from the northeast over the weekend. This could result in a weak
back-door cold front over the weekend and slightly cooler
temperatures. This could also reintroduce rain chances, but for
now, confidence is low enough to leave the forecast dry for all
but the southeast portion of the CWA (on Saturday). The models
also indicate a tropical wave moving into the Bay of Campeche over
the weekend, but the position of the mid-level ridge likely means
this system will move east into Mexico and shouldn't be a player
in our neck of the woods.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 91  74  95  76 /  50  20  10  10
San Angelo 	 92  74  96  75 /  50   5  10  10
Junction 	 91  75  94  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

04/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
228 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-121930-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
228 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.