Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Scattered showers continue to move across the area from north to
south. Will keep a mention of at least VCSH through the overnight
hours at most sites. These showers could delay the onset of low
clouds at area TAF locations, so have held off on MVFR CIGs until
closer to 12Z/7AM Friday morning. Periodic showers should continue
through the morning hours, especially for KBBD and KJCT, with most
of the precipitation slowly migrating east during the afternoon,
becoming isolated after 00Z/7PM Friday night. Winds will be
generally north to northeasterly and less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 707 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
rotate around a large upper level low located near the Hill
Country in Texas. Will keep a mention of VCSH or VCTS through
most of the night with this activity expected to continue through
tomorrow. MVFR CIGs are also expected to develop again later
tonight, although timing is still uncertain, but likely by 06Z or
shortly after. Expect the scattered SHRA and TSRA to persist
through tomorrow morning before beginning to taper off during the
afternoon hours from west to east. CIGs are also expected to
slowly lift into VFR from late morning through the afternoon
hours. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Much of the Heartland has seen consistent light to moderate
rainfall virtually all day today, as an inverted trough has
focused the rain from the Brownwood and Brady areas northeast into
the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex. Rainfall rates have been in the
quarter to one half inch per hour with the heavier downpours, with
totals in some areas over 3 inches in Brown County. The GFS/ECMWF
and the mesoscale models like the HRRR and the TTU WRF all show a
similar pattern tonight, focusing the rainfall in the inverted
trough and maybe even drifting the trough a little farther west,
perhaps even back into San Angelo and Abilene. Even on the west
side of the trough, scattered showers and storms have developed
and will continue into the evening hours. Thus, high PoP's will
continue and will let the Flash Flood Watch continue area-wide
through 12Z as well. As we saw last night in both San Angelo and
Abilene, these storms are very efficient and can produce lots of
rainfall in a short amount of time.

Rainfall within the inverted trough will continue into Friday
morning. Will extend the Flash Flood Watch Heartland and Northwest
Hill Country counties through 18Z. Fully expect the adjustments to
be made to the Watch later tonight as the rain develops.
Otherwise, with a little bit of sunshine farther west on Friday
afternoon, s a soggy air mass in place, and the Upper Low not very
far to the east, will continue to carry scattered showers and
storms across locations farther west as well.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)

.Rain ending over West Central Texas by Sunday...

A persistent upper low will be located just south of our
southeastern counties Friday night. As the upper low finally
begins to leave the area, moving south toward deep south Texas,
associated precipitation will be ending over our northern and
western counties through the day on Saturday. Rainfall will be
restricted to our southeastern counties by Saturday night, ending
over all of the forecast area by Sunday afternoon. Lows Friday and
Saturday nights will be in the lower 60s with highs on Saturday in
the low to mid 80s, with upper 70s in the southeastern counties.
Sunday Highs will be in the mid 80s under mostly Sunny skies.

(Sunday night through next Thursday)

.Dry and warmer weather through the coming week...

The forecast area will be dominated by upper high pressure in the
wake of the departing upper low through the coming week. Afternoon
highs under sunny skies will be warming from the mid 80s on Monday
to more seasonable highs around 90 degrees by Thursday. Morning
lows Monday morning in the upper 50s will warm to more seasonable
lows in the mid 60s by Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 62  77  62  82 /  60  50  20  20
San Angelo 	 62  80  61  83 /  60  40  20  30
Junction 	 61  77  63  79 /  60  60  40  50

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for Callahan-Coke-
Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Schleicher-
Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Brown-Coleman-
Concho-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
241 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-031945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
241 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT..PARTICULARLY EAST
OF AN ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA LINE. WITH SOILS ALREADY
SATURATED AND WITH CREEKS AND STREAMS ALREADY FULL...ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. OTHER MORE
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1021 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ABILENE                 32.45N  99.73W
06/02/2016                   TAYLOR             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER UP TO THE DOORS OF CARS AT CLACK AND SOUTHWEST
            WITH HIGH WATER RESCUES UNDERWAY IN ABILENE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600263

SN