Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.AVIATION...
DESPITE A LOW LVL INVERSION WHICH HAS TRAPPED IFR CIGS AND LOW
VSBYS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY AT KLFK AND
KMLU...STEEP ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE INVERSION IS ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
DRIER AIR IN MID LVLS AND LOW FRZG LVLS...IS ENHANCING HAIL
DEVELOPMENT IN THESE STORMS. CONVECTION MAY REMAIN MORE ISOLD
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF AREA...INCLUDING KTYR...KGGG...AND KTXK.
CONVECTION MOVG NEWD AT 30 TO 40 KTS. MOSTLY LGT SOUTH WINDS AND
WETTING RAINS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LOW CIGS AND REDUCED
VSBYS AT REMAINING TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. A STG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS AREA MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SW-W...BEFORE SHIFTING AGAIN TO THE WNW THRU THE AFTN
HOURS. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS OVER NE TX PORTION OF
THE AREA. LOW POSTFRONTAL STRATOCU MAY HOLD IN PLACES DURG THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CIGS IS POSSIBLE./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR DEEP E TX
IN THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AREA AND NEAR LAKE SAM RAYBURN. WILL
UPDATE TEXT AND GRIDDED FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. /VIII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MODIFIED ARCTIC CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS OK THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A SFC LOW NOW IS CENTERED OVER W TX NEAR KLBB WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING E ACROSS CENTRAL AND E TX THROUGH SRN AR. A
DRY LINE ALSO EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE KDFW METROPLEX THROUGH NEAR
KSAT.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX NEAR KAUS AND KTPL. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
MARCH INTO E TX OVERNIGHT.

DURING SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT MARCHES NW TO SE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND NE LA AND ENDS THE RAINFALL AS WELL.

A CHILLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN ON TAP BUT NO TEMPERATURE RECORDS
EXPECTED...JUST A TYPICAL COLD FEW DAYS DURING THE PEAK OF WINTER
IN MID JANUARY.

LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS STILL SHOW SW FLOW REDEVELOPING DURING
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A WET PATTERN TO RETURN. THIS TREND NEEDS TO
CONTINUE BE MONITORED AS AREA RIVERS...LAKES..AND BAYOUS REMAIN
SWOLLEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  55  33  45 /  70  30  10  10
MLU  53  62  35  45 /  70  30  10  10
DEQ  46  50  26  42 /  60  40  10  10
TXK  49  52  29  42 /  60  40  10  10
ELD  49  57  30  44 /  70  50  10  10
TYR  48  50  30  44 /  60  20  10  10
GGG  49  52  30  44 /  60  20  10  10
LFK  50  56  32  48 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1117 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-091200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1117 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
EAST TEXAS DURING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THIS FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HIGH
WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION DURING SATURDAY WITH A COLDER
AIRMASS BRINGING FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED DURING TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

LAZ010-TXZ153-090200-
DE SOTO LA-SHELBY TX-
709 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN
NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CST...

AT 708 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
BETWEEN LOGANSPORT AND STANLEY...OR 15 MILES WEST OF
MANSFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOGANSPORT...JOAQUIN...KEACHI...GRAND CANE...LONGSTREET...STANLEY...
GLOSTER...REEDS STORE...KEAT CHIE...KINGSTON AND KICKAPOO.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR
EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3191 9406 3198 9403 3198 9402 3199 9403
      3218 9401 3219 9395 3223 9389 3217 9365
      3188 9390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 204DEG 23KT 3195 9395

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
738 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

LAZ010-TXZ153-090230-
DE SOTO LA-SHELBY TX-
738 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN
NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CST...

AT 738 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SHELBYVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CENTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANSFIELD...LOGANSPORT...JOAQUIN...SHELBYVILLE...HUXLEY...SOUTH MANSFIELD...
GRAND CANE...STANLEY AND JAMES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR
EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3174 9408 3187 9416 3198 9402 3212 9385
      3198 9362
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 230DEG 26KT 3185 9407

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
749 PM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             3 NNW GRAND CANE        32.12N  93.83W
01/08/2016  M1.00 INCH       DE SOTO            LA   AIR FORCE

            METEOROLOGIST FROM 26TH OPERATIONAL WEATHER SQUADRON
            REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON HWY 171.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600005

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
800 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

LAZ001>003-010>012-090245-
RED RIVER LA-DE SOTO LA-BOSSIER LA-WEBSTER LA-BIENVILLE LA-CADDO LA-
800 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CADDO...WEST CENTRAL
BIENVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER...SOUTH CENTRAL WEBSTER...NORTH
CENTRAL DE SOTO AND NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER PARISHES UNTIL 845 PM
CST...

AT 800 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES EAST OF STONEWALL...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF MANSFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STONEWALL...DOYLINE...NOLES LANDING...MC DADE...ROBSON...CASPIANA...NINOCK...
FRIERSON...TAYLORTOWN...CURTIS...KORAN...LAKE BISTINEAU SOUTH...PLUM
ORCHARD LANDING...LAKE BISTINEAU NORTH...ELM GROVE AND KINGSTON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3223 9383 3255 9345 3239 9324 3224 9347
      3219 9354 3218 9355 3208 9369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 229DEG 28KT 3225 9365

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
809 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

LAZ002-003-012-090245-
BOSSIER LA-WEBSTER LA-BIENVILLE LA-
809 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BIENVILLE...
SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER AND SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER PARISHES UNTIL 845 PM
CST...

AT 809 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF RINGGOLD OVER LAKE BISTINEAU...OR 17
MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MINDEN...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINDEN...HAUGHTON...RINGGOLD...SIBLEY...DOYLINE...DIXIE INN...HEFLIN...NOLES
LANDING...GILARK...BELLEVUE...CURTIS...PRINCETON...FILLMORE...COUCHWOOD...
KORAN...LAKE BISTINEAU SOUTH...PLUM ORCHARD LANDING AND LAKE BISTINEAU
NORTH.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3232 9326 3230 9347 3275 9356 3278 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 171DEG 31KT 3238 9337

15

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