Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Shreveport, LA

135 
WWUS54 KSHV 270518
SVSSHV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OKC089-TXC387-270530-
/O.CON.KSHV.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-160427T0530Z/
MCCURTAIN OK-RED RIVER TX-
1218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR MCCURTAIN AND NORTHERN RED RIVER COUNTIES...

AT 1218 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF OCTAVIA TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLARKSVILLE...MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IDABEL...BROKEN BOW...MANCHESTER...WRIGHT CITY...VALLIANT...MILLERTON...
HAWORTH...GARVIN...NEGLEY...OAK HILL...HOLLY CREEK...GOLDEN...BETHEL...
PICKENS...SHERWOOD...BRYARLY...EAGLETOWN...HOCHATOWN...GLOVER AND REDLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 9460 3433 9452 3408 9448 3387 9454
      3372 9466 3370 9520 3389 9515 3414 9506
      3425 9505 3450 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 248DEG 41KT 3450 9493 3413 9482 3374 9497 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE
MOVING AROUND THIS LOW AND LIFTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE TRIGGER FOR THE SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AT THIS
TIME...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR
EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA COUNTIES AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SO FAR...THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRIMARILY
PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE ARKLATEX. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED QLCS TORNADO
EMBEDDED IN THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THINK THE MAIN THREAT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THEREFORE...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE MAJORITY OF OUR NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND PARISHES THROUGH 5
AM. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THAT IT IS MOVING AROUND 25 MPH.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH COMPLETELY PUSH THROUGH THE ARKLATEX DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...IF WE GET ENOUGH CLEARING
BEHIND THE FRONT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT AROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE ARKLATEX. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING AND ADDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

AFTER THIS EVENT...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SPC IS ALREADY MENTIONING A SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR THE
ARKLATEX ON SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME...MY CONCERN MORE
LIES WITH THE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE CURRENT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN
EVENT...WITH A BULLSEYE OF OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THIS
EVENT...BUT DO NOT WANT TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE WITH THE CURRENT
EVENT. PALMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/
FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER S OK/N TX. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO OUR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE WEE
HOURS OF THE MORNING. TSTMS MAY STILL BE SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO
OUR E TX TAF SITES VERY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 27/06Z...CONTINUING
EWD INTO TXK/SHV AND EVENTUALLY ELD/MLU LATER IN THE MORNING. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY AROUND MIDDAY INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CIGS BACK INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
AREA WIDE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AND WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BEFORE IT
STALLS OUT LATER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  70  85  66 /  10  80  70  20
MLU  85  69  82  68 /  10  20  80  40
DEQ  83  65  82  59 /  10  90  50  10
TXK  82  68  84  63 /  10  90  70  10
ELD  85  68  81  65 /  10  70  80  20
TYR  85  68  85  64 /  20  90  40  10
GGG  85  68  85  65 /  10  90  60  10
LFK  86  69  84  68 /  10  80  70  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

28/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-271700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1159 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A DRY
LINE AND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN JUST
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THEY APPROACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WHICH MAY PRODUCE MINOR AREAS OF FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS REGENERATE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL RETURN INTO THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY...PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG WITH EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WEEKEND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

VII