River Flood Warning 143, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
659 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 13/12Z TAFS...Ceilings range widely this morning and are
generally IFR/MVFR where rain is occurring while locations outside
of convection are holding on to VFR conditions for now. Expect the
lower ceilings to fill in across all sites later this morning as
showers and thunderstorms increase in response to an upper level
disturbance shifting through the region. The rain and low clouds
will keep MVFR/IFR conditions prevailing throughout the morning
with some improvement in the afternoon with scattered convection
still possible. Southerly winds will be in the 5-10 kt range for
much of the day with higher speeds and gusts occurring in heavy
showers and stronger storms. Convection should gradually diminish
with the loss of heating and as the upper disturbance transitions
farther east. Lower ceilings and possibly some fog will redevelop
toward to end of the TAF period, especially in rain-soaked areas.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The UA trough that was across the Red River Valley/SW OK this time
yesterday has since drifted to across East OK early this morning,
and has aided in sustaining a gradually waning MCS that was noted
across portions of East TX and nearing Deep East TX as of 08Z.
However just because the MCS has a waned a bit, it does not rule
out occasional lightning and intermittent moderate rainfall. The
HRRR solution appears to have a decent handle on the current
precip situation and as such, shows the MCS continuing to dwindle,
though still present whilst shifting ESE to across East TX and
deep East TX. Additional development is shown to occur across most
of the CWA /though the central and Eastern zones are most favored/
shortly after sunrise, with the onset of daytime destabilization.
Although the UA trough will be lingering North of the region, it
is not overly strong and thus the 0-6 km bulk shear is not very
impressive. Progged soundings indicating weak lapse rates further
validates that the potential for severe storms will be low/nil,
but as was seen last night, one or two storms producing brief wind
gusts, moderate rainfall and cloud to ground lightning are
certainly plausible, especially given sfc-based CAPE values of
1000-1500 j/kg will exist.

Tonight, the UA disturbance will commence to shift East of the
region, leading to diminishing precip and in its wake, increasing
500 mb height fields due to an UA ridge nosing into the CWA. Long
term solutions struggle with the specifics of the amplified UA ridge
such as, whether or not the center will be close enough to the CWA
to ward off any sea-breeze convection mid-late week. What is agreed
upon is that the center of the UA will eventually shift west and a
general weakness on the Eastern periphery of the UA ridge along with
a cold front arriving on Saturday could instigate showers and
thunderstorms for the weekend. Remember the once advertised
retrograding UA low system for next week, well it continues to
be confined to the Eastern CONUS next week due to the spatial
extent of the UA ridge.

The anticipated cloud cover and chances for renewed rainfall today
may keep well above normal warmth at bay, but temps will return into
the 90s CWA-wide by mid-week. As a result, heat indices will
increase into the 100-105 F range Wednesday-Friday. Patrons are
therefore urged to remain cognizant of this fact and take the
necessary precautions to remain cool and hydrated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  75  91  76 /  70  20  20  10
MLU  89  74  91  75 /  70  30  30  20
DEQ  86  72  90  73 /  60  20  20  10
TXK  86  74  91  75 /  60  20  20  10
ELD  87  73  90  75 /  70  30  30  10
TYR  89  75  90  76 /  60  10  10  10
GGG  87  75  91  76 /  70  20  20  10
LFK  89  76  92  77 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

19/29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
539 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-141045-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
539 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING...ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD APPROACH STRONG
LEVELS AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THESE THREATS MAY EXTEND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
631 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXZ149-131215-
CHEROKEE TX-
631 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL
715 AM CDT...

AT 630 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTH OF REESE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...AS WELL
AS BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE INCH
PER HOUR BEING POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...RUSK...PONTA...MAYDELLE...NEW SUMMERFIELD...
GALLATIN AND REKLAW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 9511 3199 9500 3175 9498 3178 9539
      3181 9539 3184 9543 3187 9542 3189 9543
      3189 9542 3192 9541 3195 9543 3195 9544
      3197 9544
TIME...MOT...LOC 1130Z 256DEG 14KT 3190 9538

FB

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