River Flood Warning 131, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
410 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms continue to develop and spread to the NE this
afternoon as a slow moving QLCS continues to move across portions
of the Four State Region. Damaging winds are the main threat with
this QLCS, along with isolated one inch hail and possibly an
isolated tornado. SPC decided to issue a SVR T-Storm Watch until
9 PM across a small portion of Deep East Texas and all of Central
Louisiana...where the strongest echoes have appeared on radar this
afternoon. So far today, we had had several reports of trees down
across portions of Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana, as this
system slowly pushes its way through. Along with the wind damage,
there has also been isolated reports of Flash Flooding across the
same areas. In addition to the severe weather, a Lake Wind
Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM tonight, as a tight
pressure gradient between a surface high to the East and the
surface low pressure system to the Northwest of the region will
continue to produce strong and gusty winds this afternoon into
the late evening hours. The upper low that is responsible for the
SVR weather today will be lifting out into the Central and
Northern Plains late Saturday and becomes an open wave taking most
of its energy away for our area and will not provide a necessary
push to send a cold front into the area. However, we will remain
in an active weather pattern over the next week. Another in a
series of disturbances will be moving into the region ahead of our
next closing upper low over Southern CA. This next upper
low/trough will be slow to exit the Southwest section of the
country and Northern Mexico keeping an unsettled weather pattern
for the forecast area into next week. At the moment, it also
appears that a Northern Stream upper low pressure system will
shift east across the Northern US Rockies and Plains region,
helping nudge a cold front into the region during mid to late
week. The front will become nearly stationary, providing a focus
for convection with disturbances associated with the Southwest
tracking upper low. High temperatures will remain in the mid to
upper 80s across the region, with low temperatures in the upper
60s/lower 70s. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 100 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

AVIATION...
Flight conditions and winds will vary greatly today with the
ongoing shower and thunderstorm threat. A line of showers and
thunderstorms currently extends from near KTXK through KSHV to
just west of KLFK...with MVFR and local IFR conditions possible
with these thunderstorms. Otherwise...VFR conditions are
prevailing. This line of showers and thunderstorms will continue
to slowly move east...affecting KELD and KMLU after 20z. A
secondary line of showers and thunderstorms is forming between
KTRL to KCRS to KLHB...and will begin to affect our Texas taf
locations after 20z...with areas of MVFR and IFR conditions
possible. Conditions will improve for the most part after this
secondary line...but MVFR ceilings will likely develop
tonight...with some local MVFR visibilities may develop in mist
near sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  71  89 /  40  20  20  20
MLU  69  86  69  89 /  70  40  20  20
DEQ  67  85  67  87 /  30  20  20  30
TXK  69  86  70  89 /  30  20  20  30
ELD  69  85  69  88 /  50  30  20  20
TYR  71  88  70  86 /  30  20  20  20
GGG  70  87  70  87 /  30  20  20  20
LFK  71  89  71  89 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
324 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-282030-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
324 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE FEEDS INTO
THE AREA AND COMBINES WITH DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP EAST
TEXAS...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXTEND FROM THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

20

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