Lake Wind Advisory 13, NWS Shreveport, LA

165 
WWUS74 KSHV 010932
NPWSHV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
332 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136-012200-
/O.CON.KSHV.LW.Y.0013.160301T1800Z-160302T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...
MINERAL SPRINGS...DIERKS...ASHDOWN...IDABEL...BROKEN BOW...
CLARKSVILLE...BOGATA...TEXARKANA...MOUNT VERNON...
MOUNT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...LONE STAR...NAPLES...
OMAHA...MINEOLA...WINNSBORO...QUITMAN...HAWKINS...GILMER...
BIG SANDY...TYLER
332 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING...

* EVENT...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
  20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
  TODAY.

* TIMING...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH AROUND NOON
  BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING.

* IMPACT...BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO 
  ROUGH CHOP. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

$$

09

476 
WWUS74 KSHV 011744
NPWSHV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136-020000-
/O.CON.KSHV.LW.Y.0013.160301T1800Z-160302T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...
MINERAL SPRINGS...DIERKS...ASHDOWN...IDABEL...BROKEN BOW...
CLARKSVILLE...BOGATA...TEXARKANA...MOUNT VERNON...
MOUNT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...LONE STAR...NAPLES...
OMAHA...MINEOLA...WINNSBORO...QUITMAN...HAWKINS...GILMER...
BIG SANDY...TYLER
1144 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* EVENT...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
  20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
  ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
  THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH
  BY AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING.

* IMPACT...BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO 
  ROUGH CHOP. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

$$

VII

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
540 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z AT MOST SITES...BEFORE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING TSTMS/VCTS TO THE REGION FROM NW TO
SE BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. KTXK/KELD LOOK
TO BE MOST IMPACTED BY THE TSTMS...WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANYTHING BUT VCTS AT OTHER SITES. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN
CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...INCREASING S TO SWLY WINDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS EXPECTED PRIOR TO FROPA...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS 10-15 KTS EXPECTED ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT N OUT OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BNDRY BARELY
DISCERNIBLEIN THE PRESSURE ANALYSIS BUT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK TO NEAR DEQ...TO ELD TO S OF GLH. THIS BNDRY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY WASH OUT THIS EVENING...BUT THE EXPANDING
WARM/MOIST SECTOR WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A 35-40KT SWRLY LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
DIVE SE AND AMPLIFY E OF THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. THE SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING/POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TONIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO REMAIN N OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL AR
BY AFTERNOON. SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT OVER CNTRL OK...WHERE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE INCREASES ATOP A MODIFYING BNDRY LYR. STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD YIELD AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR LATE. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH
CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS...AND HAVE SHIFTED LOW
CHANCE POPS FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR AS THE TROUGH
AXIS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAY EXTEND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FROM
THE POTENTIAL MCS THAT DEVELOPS.

THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD TUESDAY...WITH THE
DIFFLUENCE SPREADING SE ACROSS SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME NRN LA.
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION THOUGH...ALTHOUGH A BROAD AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE OVER THIS REGION...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY STILL RESIDING JUST S OF THE PRIMARY FORCING FROM THE
TROUGH. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FARTHER SW ACROSS
DEEP E TX AND SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT...WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT QUICKLY ENTRAINING EWD INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON AND TAPERING
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN THIS...AM NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT MAINLY OVER SW AR/POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THAT THE
TROUGH/ACCOMPANYING FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH E OF THE REGION BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR QUICKLY SPREADS SE. A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
30-35KT H925-850 WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY NW WINDS WITH THE FROPA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SW
AR/SE OK/NE TX MEETING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
PERIOD WILL BE TOO SHORT TO WARRANT MENTION OF AN ADVISORY ATTM...AS
THESE WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DECOUPLING.

SFC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD ESE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH A SE RETURN FLOW QUICKLY COMMENCING OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE DELAYED THOUGH GIVEN THE COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EXPECTED
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE NRN GULF...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS E OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PROGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS 2ND SHORTWAVE TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK SE ACROSS
CNTRL OK INTO AR THURSDAY MORNING...ENHANCING A SWRLY LLJ OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
JUST N OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT THE RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT QPF OVER THE REGION...MAINLY OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE. THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...ENDING
ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT SHOULD REINFORCE THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BY
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS THE AIR MASS QUICKLY MODIFIES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

THE NW UPPER FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...MAINTAINING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A DISTINCT
PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SW. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY RETURN TO THE
WRN SECTIONS OF E TX/SE OK SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING E OVER CNTRL OK/AR...BEFORE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CONVECTION WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLY SETTING UP OVER TX/OK BY THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...SLOWLY
SPREADING E TOWARDS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
POSITION/TIMING DISCREPANCIES NOW WILL HOPEFULLY BE IRONED OUT AS
BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IS MET LEADING UP TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  71  41  68 /  10  40   0   0
MLU  59  73  42  65 /  10  50  10   0
DEQ  57  65  33  63 /  50  70   0   0
TXK  60  67  38  64 /  40  60   0   0
ELD  59  68  36  63 /  20  60   0   0
TYR  62  69  42  68 /  10  30   0   0
GGG  61  70  41  68 /  10  30   0   0
LFK  61  76  43  70 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016

ARZ050-051-059-060-OKZ077-TXZ096-011200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-
1153 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OKLAHOMA.
GIVEN THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPILLING SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ARZ061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>153-165>167-011200-
NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-
CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-
SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1153 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING OVER EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND
NORTH LOUISIANA...NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALOFT...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOULD THESE STRONG
STORMS DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS...WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

15