Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
604 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

In the near term the main concern is thunderstorm development. A
sfc wind shift/weak cold front has moved south into southeast KS
and southern MO while a weak upper level vort/mcv is tracking
slowly east into southeast KS. While some high resolution models
have been too aggressively breaking out storms, the general
consensus still seems to look good to develop scattered storms
late this afternoon in the convergence of the frontal zone.
MLCAPEs of around 3000 j/kg should support robust updrafts into
this evening. Vertical shear of 15-20kt will support pulse storms
and some multicell clusters with damaging straight line winds and
one inch hail the main expected hazards.

A severe tstm watch has been issued for our se KS counties where
lift is expected to be somewhat enhanced by the approaching
mcv/vort max.

The convection with the remnant vort max will continue to some
degree into the overnight hours and into Fri. Will have to watch
for the potential for localized flash flooding as the vort max
moves in with higher moisture content/precipitable water values.

No plans for any further heat advisories with clouds and ongoing
rain/tstms expected for many areas on Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Rising mid level heights and very warm sfc temperatures are
expected Saturday with mainly diurnally driven pulse storms still
possible but with more limited coverage. The tail and of a
vigorous shortwave moving across the north central tier of the
U.S. and southern Canada will force another front south, reaching
IA/nw MO/KS by early Sunday. This front looks to stall and weaken
Sunday so it looks like organized convection will stay off to our
north with fairly warm midlevel temperatures remaining in place
over our area. Still we will have some limited possibility for
isolated convection.

The overall pattern is still expected to transition over the CONUS
next week with an upper ridge retrograding/building out west
allowing gradually cooler sfc air to move into our area. With a
sfc front expected off to our southwest and south, we may see
mesoscale convective complexes occasionally move from the Plains
into the Ozarks region, particularly Wed/Thu as impulses ride
southeast on the east side of the upper ridge. Will maintain rain
chances for much of this period with cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

An mcv over KS and a surface front across the CWA were sparking
some afternoon/early evening convection across the area. Will
likley see this continue as the mcv tracks east into the area. For
now will go with vcts wording for the TAFS for the first several
hours this evening at SGF/JLN. May have to increase probability if
convection associated with mcv out west holds together during the
evening. Will go with VFR conditions, but if a thunderstorm does
occur onsite, will drop briefly into MVFR/IFR.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ088-093-095>098-
     101>106.

KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ101.

&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
734 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

MOZ090-240115-
GREENE MO-
734 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM CDT...

AT 734 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BATTLEFIELD...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN SPRINGFIELD...       REPUBLIC...
BATTLEFIELD...                    WILLARD...
BROOKLINE...                      CAVE SPRINGS...
GLIDEWELL...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 65 AND 68...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 70 AND 76.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3713 9334 3715 9352 3736 9349 3731 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 191DEG 8KT 3720 9340

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
747 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW ROGERSVILLE       37.07N 93.08W
06/23/2016                   CHRISTIAN          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN APPRX 2 FT IN DIAMETER NEAR REED RD
            AND 125 NEAR SPARTA.

&&

AFOSCATO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
755 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW FRONTENAC          37.45N 94.70W
06/23/2016                   CRAWFORD           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER OVER ROADWAY NEAR FRONTENAC. NEAR
            CATALINA AND KENNEDY A STALLED VEHICLE DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

AFOSCATO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
817 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE BATTLEFIELD       37.14N 93.36W
06/23/2016                   GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN NEAR SW SPRINGFIELD.

&&

AFOSCATO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
838 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

MOZ079-240230-
POLK MO-
838 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

AT 838 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
BOLIVAR...                        POMME DE TERRE LAKE...
POLK...                           PLEASANT HOPE...
HALFWAY...                        BRIGHTON...
GOODSON...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3780 9319 3751 9318 3742 9334 3762 9350
      3781 9340
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 229DEG 20KT 3758 9334

WISE