Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Strong upper level ridge remains in place across the mid section of
the country, including southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.
However, shortwave trough lifts into Arkansas later today
undercutting the ridge. This will likely spawn some afternoon and
evening convection from Arkansas into the Missouri Ozarks and
possibly southeast Kansas. Thunderstorms will be isolated to
scattered in nature, with the greatest coverage across southern
Missouri. This convection will die off with loss of heating during
the evening hours.

Airmass remains relatively unchanged, so expect another seasonably
hot day across the region, with highs again in the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Another shortwave will track across the Plains on Tuesday,
flattening the upper level ridge. Although areas remains on the
periphery of any stronger forcing, there is a band of stronger
midlevel winds that will increase low level vertical shear.  Will
likely see some isolated to scattered convection once again develop
across the area with some stronger storms possible during the
afternoon/evening hours and cannot rule out an isolated severe storm.

Medium range models show several more shortwaves tracking across
northern Missouri from Wednesday into Wednesday night before ridge
starts to build back across the plains. Moist and unstable airmass
remains in place, so expect more mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms, as the main forcing remains north of the area. It
will remain hot and humid with highs in the lower 90s and heat index
values approaching 100.

By Thursday, upper ridging begins to build back across the Plains,
with the ridge continuing to build Friday through Saturday. Ridge
axis sets up from the desert southwest into the Upper Mississippi
River Valley by the end of the week. Much of the forecast area will
remaining on the eastern periphery of the ridge which may help some
cooler air drop into the area by Saturday. until then, afternoon
heat index values will likely too off near 100 on Thursday and the
90s Friday. Will continue to see low probabilities for diurnally
driven convection for this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Scattered storms may affect the terminals this afternoon. Gusty
winds are possible in some of the thunderstorms. Most storms will
end with loss of day time heating. VFR conditions expected
tonight through Monday morning.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1028 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131530-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1028 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 95 AND 100
  DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
 MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE CLOUD TO
 GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MOST COMMON RISK...A FEW OF THE
 STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
 WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 95 AND 102
  DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
  BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER
  AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

  THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
  WEEK.THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
  LIGHTNING THE MAIN RISKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BURCHFIELD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NOEL                    36.55N 94.48W
06/12/2016                   MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN

&&

AFOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

KSZ097-121845-
CRAWFORD KS-
101 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY
UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 101 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MCCUNE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST. PAUL...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
MCCUNE...                         WALNUT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3762 9509 3758 9502 3734 9496 3734 9507
      3739 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 189DEG 13KT 3742 9506

BURCHFIELD