Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Thunderstorm development has been pretty sparse so far across
southern Missouri and southeastern Kansas. 00Z SGF sounding
indicated a capping inversion near 800 MB and weak deep layer
shear. In addition the low level flow had veered resulting in only
weak low level convergence. With that said the potential for
convection and severe weather has diminished somewhat but cannot
be ruled out yet.

Convective development could still take place across south
central Missouri through this evening where low level convergence
will be a bit better as a front moves in from the west.

However with the best forcing off to the northwest and weak
surface convergence the coverage of showers and storms this
evening will be less than previously anticipated.

There remains a chance if not likelihood for showers and storms
late tonight after midnight as another mid level shortwave
approaches from the west. This feature and strengthening low
level jet will interact the frontal boundary sagging southeastward
through the area. This will manufacture at least scattered showers
and storms across far southern Missouri. The coverage and northern
extent of this development will depend of the positioning of the
frontal boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

For tonight, will see the surface front push eastward late this
afternoon and evening and should help to develop convection and
erode what is left of the thermal cap. Should be enough
instability for some strong to severe storms, with the best chance
of that occurring across the eastern Ozarks during the evening
hours, mainly east of highway 65. Wind and hail will be the main
severe weather risks. Shear profiles are marginal and do not look
favorable for any tornadic development at this time.

Convection should exit the area late tonight. There may be a few
remaining showers left during the morning hours Thursday, but
should see clearing take place across the area during the
afternoon. Any strong to severe weather will likely end by
midnight as instability should be rapidly decreasing by late in
the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Dry conditions are then expected for Thursday night into early
Friday. By Friday afternoon, another surface front will be moving
in from the north and will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to northern parts of the CWA, then shifting through
the remainder of the area Friday night.

There are some differences developing between the GFS and the
ECMWF over the weekend. The GFS remains more in a northwest flow
pattern and keeps main energy and precipitation off to our south
through most of the weekend, while ECMWF becomes more westerly and
brings convection back into the picture as early as Saturday
night. Both models have an unsettled weather pattern over the area
for at least the first part of next week, with several rounds of
convection and the potential for heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Pilots can expect a frontal passage this evening from the west but
VFR conditions will prevail. Cloud cover will increase with
ceilings generally near 5 KFT. Scattered showers and storms will
impact areas mainly to the east of the terminal sites this evening
but development late tonight could impact area terminals. The sky
will gradually clear Thursday as surface high pressure builds into
the region. This will result in a gusty northwesterly surface
wind.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
839 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

MOZ083-120200-
DENT MO-
839 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DENT COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM CDT...

AT 839 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES EAST OF SALEM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
STONE HILL...                     HOWES MILL...
SLIGO...                          BOSS...

LAT...LON 3759 9131 3755 9132 3754 9143 3773 9150
      3779 9140 3778 9134 3779 9131 3771 9131
      3770 9130 3769 9115 3759 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 244DEG 51KT 3767 9135

GRIFFIN