Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
616 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016

Storms have developed across western into north central Arkansas
early this evening. This activity is and will continue to spread
northeast across south central Missouri this evening. Cloud cover
from convection early in the day have kept instability lower and
limited the severe risk. Still with strong deep layer shear and
few strong storms will be possible across south central MO this
evening with hail to the size of nickles and wind gusts to 50 mph
the main risk.

Additional thunderstorms have develop across central Kansas into
central Oklahoma along a dry line this afternoon and early this
evening. The dry line will not push much to the east so these
storms are easily moving off the dry line and being supercells.
With the dry line not moving east the thought is as the storms
track east cold pools will congeal and form a line or line
segments. There could be mix mode as this occurs but think as the
storms approach the area later this evening the main storm mode
with be line segments. Clouds did clear and instability increase
across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri which will keep an
elevated risk for severe storms later this evening into the
overnight hours generally west of Highway 65. East of 65 there are
more questions due to weaker instability due to current and
earlier convection today. Height falls will still occur with an
upper level shortwave so there could still be a risk east of 65.

The main severe risk with the line segments will be winds over 60
mph. A few of the stronger updrafts could be capable of hail to
the size of quarters. 0-3km bulk shear will be west to east at
30-35kt, so a limited tornado risk will occur, mainly with any
line segments can surge to the east later this evening into the
overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016

An area of showers associated with a subtle short wave now over
southwest MO helped stabilize conditions today, but clearing has
occurred in it's wake over southeast KS and sw MO. Rapid sfc
warming and increased instability over eastern KS/OK is setting
the stage for rapid storm development over the next few hours.

It looks like there are two distinct areas of concern:

1. Central/eastern KS/ne OK into southeast KS western MO this
afternoon and into tonight. MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 j/kg and
increased ascent ahead of another stronger shortwave now over sw
KS will increase convective development over the next few hours
along and just ahead of dryline/sfc trough. Storms over KS/OK
initially develop as supercells with large hail/wind the main
risks off to our west. Some high res guidance, notably the HRRR,
gradually transition the storms more linear or mixed mode
supercell and bowing segments as it tracks east into our area
mid/late evening with mlcapes somewhat weakened, but still in the
1200-1500 j/kg range. Believe wind and hail will be the main storm
hazards but a brief spin up tornado will be possible with n-s
oriented line segments (0-3km shear vectors from the west at
30-35kts) this evening and possibly last past 06z/1 am.

2. Another area of storms is expected to develop farther south
over se OK and western AR. This area has been a bit worked over
with persistent cloud cover, but more abundant low level
moisture, better vertical shear (50+ kts 0-6km), and increased
instability/partial clearing will allow supercells with all modes
of hazards (hail/wind/tornado) to develop. The general high res
model trend has been to keep this activity south of the MO/AR
border, but the northern edge could work it's way up into far
southern MO this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016

The occasionally active weather pattern will continue this week.

Tue: Expect a bit of a lull after residual morning activity. The
shortwave that is expected to produce tonight's active weather
will shift off quickly to the northeast with a shortwave upper
ridge moving across the area. Can't rule out some diurnally driven
afternoon/evening convection, but activity looks minimal at this
point. The GFS does produce some late night convection Tue night
in response to a increased low level, but this seems to be
somewhat of an outlier versus the ECMWF and GEM.

Wed: Looks more active Wed afternoon/night as another shortwave
moves ene through the region. Mid level height falls/increased
ascent, abundant warm sector low level moisture/instability will
allow strong/severe storms to develop focused along a cold front
expected to move into eastern KS/MO.

Thu/Fri: Looks drier in the wake of the cold front. Some low pops
are warranted with another sfc frontal passage late Fri.

Sat-Mon: Zonal midlevel flow and a trailing stationary frontal
boundary will keep occasional convective weather active but hard
to time through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 9 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A storm system is tracking
across the plains early this evening and storms are developing
across central Kansas to the south through central Oklahoma.
Additional showers and thunderstorms have developed across north
central Arkansas into south central Missouri, and may clip the
KBBG Area early this evening. For the most part this activity will
remain south and east of the TAF sites this evening.

The storms that are currently across Kansas and Oklahoma will
then track east towards the area later this evening into the
overnight hours. These storms will have a better potential of
affecting the TAF sites. MVFR and possibly IFR conditions will
occur with any thunderstorm. Storms may linger into the overnight
hours. Behind the convection late tonight MVRF conditions may
occur be there is questions if this will develop of not.
Conditions will improve quickly after sun rise if MVFR conditions
can develop.

Low level wind shear will be possible tonight. With gusty south to
southwesterly winds occurring, especially  Tuesday morning and
afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

MOZ098-100045-
SHANNON MO-
719 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHANNON COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

AT 719 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
EMINENCE...OR 18 MILES WEST OF VAN BUREN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
WINONA...                         BIRCH TREE...
EMINENCE...                       WEST EMINENCE...
MIDRIDGE...                       ALLEY SPRING...
ROUND SPRING...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3708 9109 3709 9121 3700 9122 3688 9141
      3704 9165 3742 9130 3741 9118 3726 9116
      3725 9112 3720 9112 3720 9109 3718 9109
      3717 9104 3713 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 223DEG 49KT 3709 9133

GRIFFIN