Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
819 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

*** Updated for meso-scale discussion ***

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 815 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016

Cold front currently draped across southeast Kansas into northern
Missouri. Mixed layer CAPE values range from 1000-2000 j/kg ahead
of the front into western Missouri. Convection has been training
across central Missouri the past few hours, with additional
development over northeast Oklahoma. Short term models show
northeast Oklahoma convection to continue to move and expand
northeast into southern Missouri this evening congealing with the
convection over central Missouri. Hail threat continues to be
primary, with training echoes also offering a flash flood threat.
Have decided to hoist a flash flood watch for portions of the area
through the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016

Seeing quite a variation in temperatures in and near the forecast
area this afternoon. Over southeast Kansas temperatures have risen
into the lower/mid 80s ahead of the approaching dry line east of
Wichita and the associated cold front extending east northeast
from the dryline toward the south side of KC. Persistent cloud
cover has held temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s over much the
MO Ozarks. Dewpoint temperatures have crept up into the mid 50s to
lower 60s over southwest MO/southeast KS.

Expect storms to develop over southeast Kansas late this
afternoon along the dryline or thermal boundary from clouds along
the KS/MO border. LAPS data still indicates some convective
inhibition but with temperatures getting so warm, don't think it
will be too long before capping inversion breaks. NAM BUFR
hodograph remains curved through the evening and with low level
jet coming into play, see some potential for rotating storms so
included limited tornado threat to HWO for this evening, mainly
west of 65. Overall instability will decrease as storms move
eastward. However with the front lining up parallel to upper flow
we could see some training effects and localized flooding late
tonight and early Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016

Another Canadian High building southward into the forecast area
will drop temperatures into the mid 30s Monday night. Model trends
have been a little warmer this run so do not plan on putting any
freeze headlines out with this package.

Another upper trough moves to the south of the Ozarks on
Wednesday. Latest model guidance keeps precipitation south of our
area but will need to monitor this feature for potential precip
addition to our southern counties.

Otherwise we will see mainly dry conditions and a warming trend
through mid/late week with upper level ridging over the central
US in response to digging upper trough over the western CONUS.
This system is expected to affect the region either late Saturday
or Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016

Convection had developed from southeast Kansas into central
Missouri ahead of an approaching cold front. This convection will become
more numerous later this evening as the activity sags southward
into the taf sites. Expect VFR conditions prior to the convection with
MVFR to IFR conditions within the convective elements. Expect
occasional -TSRA overnight into Monday with the thunder threat
waning Monday afternoon with the passage of the front.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>094.

KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...Raberding
SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Raberding

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
903 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-120215-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
903 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REST OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
LIMITED CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM CASSVILLE TO VERSAILLES...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO A LIMITED TO ELEVATED THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RESIDUAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF A NEOSHO MISSOURI TO SALEM LINE AND SOUTH AND EAST
OF THAT LINE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

RABERDING

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