Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1204 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

The main concern for this time frame remains unchanged: Severe
weather potential.

Strong low pressure will shift east across Neb with a trailing
dryline reaching the Flint Hills region of KS by early evening
7pm/31-00z. The main concern will be how much convection will be
able to fire along the dryline late today and this evening while
moderate instability is in place.

Some modest moisture return at around 850mb is evident in
sfc observations and is in line with RAP progged soundings in the
near term. Moisture is advecting n-ne underneath and elevated
mixed layer/cap along with more extensive mid/upper level
moisture. Will still take some work to get precip going with sfc
dew points still in the low/mid 30s.

Subtle mid level impulses moving northeast from the southern
Plains will increase overall lift while deeper low level moisture
rapidly increases for the southwest this morning increasing
chances for elevated convection with mucapes reaching up to near
1500 j/kg. Can't rule out some hail with stronger updrafts given
good mid level lapse rates.

There will be a break, or at least a partial one, in the overall
coverage of showers during the mid afternoon. Attention then turns
to the dryline off to our west. A narrow corridor of moderate surface
based instability is expected to develop with uncapped mlcape
values of about 1500 j/kg by early evening (progged GFS KJLN
sounding). The temporal window for progged robust instability
(GFS) looks small late today and this evening but given the
strong vertical shear a large hail and tornado threat exists where
discreet convection can develop. The high res ARW and NMM are not
too bullish in moving the convection too far off the dryline
initially so it looks like the best chance for severe storms late
today and this evening will be over the western cwfa.

As the low continues off to the east, a cold front catches up to
the dryline and moves east through the cwfa overnight. Again, high
res models are not to bullish with convection as the front sweeps
through with more robust convection to our south limited
moisture/buoyancy over our area (as mentioned in SPC discussion).
Will need to watch trends closely as the weather evolves today.
The SPC day 1 looks good with a slightly higher probability of
tornadoes over the far western cwfa and a general 15% hail and
wind risk over most of the area. The hail risk will likely be more
tied to earlier elevated convection and then what every develops
near the dryline. The wind risk will be more late today and
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

A colder and dry air mass moves into the area behind the front
Thu. Frost headlines may be needed with the coldest night/early
morning looking to be Fri/Sat morning. A couple of
shortwaves moving through the upper level nw flow may produce
some clouds brief sprinkles over the northeast cwfa Fri.

A quick warming trend will occur this weekend. Another front is
expected to move south into/through the area Monday, but with
dry air expected to be in place, only modest rain chances are
expected at best. Cooler and dry weather is expected for day
7/Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Convection started developing over the region within the past
couple of hours, with some stronger storms potentially worthy of
some hail or a wind gust. Will continue trend with scattered
convection this afternoon, which will mainly be elevated in
nature. Have been in between MVFR and IFR all day and this will
likely continue into the afternoon hours. Dryline will be the main
focus for strong/severe storms later this afternoon and evening.
Will likely go into MVFR and maintain through the evening and into
the overnight hours.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
102 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     HAIL             FORT LEONARD WOOD       37.71N 92.16W
03/30/2016  E0.75 INCH       PULASKI            MO   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

MOZ055-067-068-301915-
HICKORY MO-BENTON MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
127 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR...
NORTHWESTERN HICKORY AND BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 127 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WEAUBLEAU...OR 13 MILES WEST OF HERMITAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
TRUMAN STATE PARK...              TRUMAN LAKE...
WARSAW...                         LINCOLN...
COLE CAMP...                      OSCEOLA...
LOWRY CITY...                     IONIA...
VISTA...                          GERSTER...
PALO PINTO...                     QUINCY...
RACKET...                         EDMONSON...
MORA...                           HARPER...
ICONIUM...                        BRANDON...
WHITAKERVILLE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3853 9307 3850 9307 3794 9343 3796 9369
      3820 9376 3821 9375 3821 9356 3822 9356
      3821 9353 3850 9351 3852 9350 3851 9330
      3853 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 213DEG 44KT 3799 9357

GRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
137 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     HAIL             LAMAR                   37.49N 94.28W
03/30/2016  E0.75 INCH       BARTON             MO   PUBLIC

            PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
206 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

MOZ070-071-082-083-301945-
PHELPS MO-DENT MO-PULASKI MO-TEXAS MO-
206 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DENT...PHELPS...
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 206 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
ROLLA...                          FORT LEONARD WOOD...
ST. ROBERT...                     ST. JAMES...
LICKING...                        DIXON...
DOOLITTLE...                      NEWBURG...
EDGAR SPRINGS...                  HAZELTON...
NORTHWYE...                       BEULAH...
ROBY...                           ANUTT...
DEVIL'S ELBOW...                  LECOMA...
LENOX...                          JEROME...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 161 AND 169...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 195.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3750 9181 3750 9218 3801 9214 3801 9159
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 211DEG 49KT 3759 9206

GRIFFIN

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