Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

Ongoing thunderstorms were becoming more outflow structured across
southwest and south central Missouri this afternoon. This will
lead to further weakening with time, and we may consider
canceling the Severe Thunderstorm Watch early.

The main show will occur tonight as a line of thunderstorms
approaches the Kansas and Missouri state line toward midnight.

We think a few of these storms could become organized, with the
potential for damaging wind gusts and small hail. With 0 to 3 km
shear vectors screaming to the north northeast at 40 to 45 knots,
any northwest to southeast oriented line segments will have the
chance of spinning up some meso-vorts with a tornado risk.
However, it's quite uncertain that any segments will evolve into
this northwest to southeast structure. This is more of a short
term forecast challenge.

Storms are expected to continue through the Highway 65 corridor,
and should weaken as they approach the eastern Ozarks.

Additional storms will possible Wednesday as the main cold front
shifts through southern Missouri during the daytime hours. There
is a severe risk for hail and wind east of Highway 65. All
precipitation should exit the Ozarks Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

A small window of quiet weather is expected Thursday into Friday
with mild temperatures.

The risk for organized storms will ramp up Friday night into
Saturday, as another negatively tilted storm system approaches
from the west.

This system will need to be monitored closely as several
ingredients could come together for an episode of severe
thunderstorms. There doesn't appear to be any potential negatives
for Friday night and Saturday's set up at the moment.

Sunday into Monday the pattern would offer another window of quiet
weather with mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Line of convection starting to make an eastward push now over
southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. Should make it to the JLN
area prior to the 06z TAF time and into SGF/BBG by 07-08z. Have
things going through fairly quickly and ending prior to 12z with
VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Gusty winds are
expected, especially when winds become more southwesterly today as
the drier air moves in.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
904 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-280215-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
904 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE MISSOURI AND KANSAS STATE LINE AFTER 11 PM. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS. IF A LINE
SEGMENT CAN BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THEN A
COUPLE OF SHORT LIVED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THEY SHIFT EAST OF THE HIGHWAY
65 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN OZARKS WHERE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN FORECASTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTER MISSOURI.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
714 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOZ082-097-270100-
TEXAS MO-HOWELL MO-
714 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 714 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CABOOL...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLOW SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
MOUNTAIN VIEW...                  WILLOW SPRINGS...
CABOOL...                         SUMMERSVILLE...
CLEAR SPRINGS...                  ARROLL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3698 9209 3705 9209 3705 9214 3717 9213
      3721 9166 3692 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 271DEG 19KT 3708 9204

FRYE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1053 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ073-270445-
BOURBON KS-
1053 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BOURBON COUNTY UNTIL
1145 PM CDT...

AT 1052 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BLUE MOUND...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUND CITY...MOVING NORTH
AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
MAPLETON...                       XENIA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3804 9486 3803 9486 3789 9495 3792 9508
      3804 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 198DEG 14KT 3799 9503

FRYE