Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Springfield, MO

971 
WWUS53 KSGF 122250
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
550 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

MOC105-161-169-215-122300-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-160812T2315Z/
PHELPS MO-LACLEDE MO-TEXAS MO-PULASKI MO-
550 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PHELPS...EASTERN
LACLEDE...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND PULASKI COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3776 9195 3750 9197 3747 9228 3747 9238
      3748 9239 3758 9238 3777 9255 3796 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 241DEG 15KT 3779 9233 3766 9221 3754 9222 

$$

BOXELL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
234 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2016

A slow moving cold front was making its way through the Ozarks
this afternoon. Scattered showers and a few rumbles of
thunder were occuring behind the front with isolated showers
ahead of it. As the front continues to move to the south, coverage
of showers are expected to increase with the potential for locally
heavy rainfall for locations mainly south of Interstate 44.

The airmass in place over the region is rather tropical in nature
with plenty of additional moisture forecast to move into the
region tonight and through the weekend. While models continue to
bring ample moisture into the region, there is not much
consistency between models, with the GFS/ECMWF/SREF the most
bullish with rain and the NAM/Canadian with less rainfall. For
now, have tried to blend as best as possible.

As a result showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon through Saturday. Breaks in the rain will occur
Saturday morning into early afternoon with coverage increasing
into Saturday evening as the front moves into northern Arkansas.
Overall amounts from 0.75" to 1.50" are expected through Tonight
into Saturday afternoon with the heaviest amounts across south
central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2016

The frontal boundary will be across northern Arkansas Saturday
evening with post frontal showers continuing across southern and
south central Missouri Saturday evening. During the overnight into
Sunday morning however, the front will begin to slowly lift back
to the north as a sub-tropical area of low pressure moves north
from the Gulf providing the focusing mechanisms for additional
rounds of heavy rain for the area.

Rain will spread north along and ahead of the front through the
day Sunday before the frontal boundary stalls along the Interstate
44 corridor. This will combine with sub tropical low and the
tropical moisture streaming into the area, periods of heavy
rainfall resulting in flooding are expected Sunday afternoon into
Monday night. Rainfall Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning is
expected to be from 2 to 5 inches along and south of Interstate
44 to in addition to what falls Friday/Saturday. The combination
of these two rounds of rain will likely lead to flooding.

Overall forecast rainfall totals for the weekend and through
Tuesday morning continue to be from 3 to 7 inches. There will be
a sharp cutoff to the rain however with locations from Stockton
Lake to the Lake of the Ozarks and north expected to see lighter
rainfall amounts.

The stalled front is not expected to move from the Ozark Plateau
region until late Wednesday when it will begin to sag to the
south. This will bring little relief though as mid and upper level
short waves move through the southwesterly/westerly flow aloft and
bring the energy for additional rainfall into Thursday evening.

For the end of next week into next weekend, more showers and
storms will be possible but may be more scattered in nature.
Overall, the next 7 to 10 days look to be very wet with flooding
a major concern as we go through the weekend and the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some light haze/fog will be possible
early otherwise in the near term VFR conditions are expected.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase after 17z as a
cold front approaches and eventually moves through the area. Some
lower MVFR post frontal ceilings will be possible late in the taf
period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Monday
     morning for MOZ082-083-091-092-095>098-103>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-132100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
347 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
  OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED
  AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

  HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S OVER PORTIONS
  OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON.

  LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO A FLASH FLOOD RISK
  THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES REMAIN EXPECTED
  THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
  FROM GALENA MISSOURI TO SALEM MISSOURI. THIS RAINFALL IS
  EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND
  RIVERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

  EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
  RIVERS AND IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
  LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. A SHARP
  CUTOFF TO THE RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
  FORECAST COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXPECTED
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
442 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELL KNOB              36.63N 93.63W
08/12/2016                   BARRY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CENTRAL CROSSING FIRE DISCTRICT REPORTS 4 TREES DOWN ON
            LOOP STREET IN SHELL KNOB

&&

RABERDING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE SHELL KNOB         36.59N 93.58W
08/12/2016                   STONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE VIOLA AREA WITH SOME POWER
            LINES DOWN AS WELL

&&

RABERDING