Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Springfield, MO

440 
WWUS53 KSGF 010158
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
858 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

MOC043-213-010208-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-160701T0215Z/
CHRISTIAN MO-TANEY MO-
858 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN AND
NORTHWESTERN TANEY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3669 9318 3679 9330 3682 9331 3683 9334
      3693 9334 3696 9330 3694 9316 3688 9302
      3679 9290 3671 9293 3666 9300 3666 9309
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 307DEG 42KT 3668 9297 

$$

CRAMER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
246 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Upper level short wave energy will drop southeast across the
southern Great Lakes from late this afternoon through tonight and
will drive a cold front southeast through the Missouri Ozarks.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the frontal boundary
with the best coverage likely occurring before midnight. Enough
instability and deep layer shear will be present to carry a severe
risk along the I-49 corridor and into the Truman and Lake of the
Ozarks region. Large hail to the size of half dollars and damaging
wind gusts will be the primary severe threats.

That frontal boundary will then stall somewhere in the vicinity of
the I-40 corridor in Arkansas on Friday and will curl back
northwest towards developing surface low pressure across
southeastern Colorado. More showers and thunderstorms will be
possible...mainly in closer proximity to that front across
southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler over most areas with highs generally in the
lower to middle 80s. Dew points on Friday will vary quite a bit
across the Ozarks with values ranging from the lower 60s across
central Missouri to around 70 degrees across far southwestern
Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Confidence is high that a mesoscale convective system (MCS) will
then develop Friday night across northern Kansas and will shift
east into northern and central Missouri from late Friday night
into Saturday morning. While the track is still somewhat in
question, there is a signal there for a swath of heavy rainfall
somewhere across northern and perhaps central Missouri. While
confidence is not high enough to post a Flash Flood Watch at this
point, this may need consideration in the future as mesoscale
details become clearer.

That front will return north from later Friday night into
Saturday, however its eventual position by Saturday afternoon
remains unclear. Showers and thunderstorms will remain likely
north of the front, with scattered activity also possible south of
this feature. There will be a conditional risk for a few strong to
severe storms if enough instability can develop. There should be a
huge temperature contrast throughout the area on Saturday. Highs
may struggle to reach the middle 70s over parts of central
Missouri while areas of far southwestern Missouri reach the lower
90s.

Another complex of thunderstorms will then be possible Saturday
night as upper level short wave energy digs across the central
Plains. This will continue the threat for heavy rainfall over at
least portions of the Ozarks. Showers and thunderstorms then
appear likely as we head into Sunday and Sunday night with the
slow approach of that wave. There will once again be a conditional
risk for strong to severe storms if sufficient instability can
develop given that deep layer shear will be increasing.

Thunderstorm chances on the Fourth of July will then be
conditional on how quickly that short wave trough departs the
region. At this point, global models are indicating that the
morning may be wet across much of the area with perhaps some drier
weather in the afternoon and evening. Timing will become much
clearer as we get into the weekend.

A warming trend is then expected as we get towards the middle of
next week as upper level ridging commences. We kept PoPs near
climatology in the 20-30% range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Aviators flying into southwestern Missouri can expect generally
good weather through the forecast period. There is the potential
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon
and tonight however, the coverage and location of the storms will
be difficult to pin down, have included vicinity storms as a
result. Where storms do occur, impacts to aviation will occur, but
will handle that on a short term basis.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-012030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
330 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
  INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
  INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
  THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
  AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE
  OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING
  WINDS TO 60 MPH. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A JOPLIN TO
  CAMDENTON LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
  STORMS. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
  CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
  FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A DAILY BASIS IF ENOUGH
  INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

  HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL RESULT IN A
  LIMITED RISK FOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...TOTAL
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
  ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR FOUR
  INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

  THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND INCLUDING ALONG AREA
  RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR APPROACHING STORMS...
  AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
  WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY
  NORTH AND WEST OF A JOPLIN TO CAMDENTON LINE.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
733 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW BOLIVAR            37.61N 93.42W
06/30/2016                   POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            APPROX. 10-12 FOOT TREE SOWN NEAR OAKLAND AVE IN BOLIVAR.

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW BOLIVAR            37.61N 93.42W
06/30/2016                   POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            APPROX. 10-12 FOOT TREE DOWN NEAR OAKLAND AVE. IN
            BOLIVAR.

&&

AFOSCATO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
741 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E SPRINGFIELD         37.20N 93.23W
06/30/2016                   GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LIMBS DOWN NEAR CHESTNUT AND 65 NEAR SPRINGFIELD.

&&

AFOSCATO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
743 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW CARTHAGE          37.17N 94.34W
06/30/2016                   JASPER             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES AND A POWER POLE DOWN BLOCKING A ROAD.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
746 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             ORONOGO                 37.19N 94.47W
06/30/2016  M1.00 INCH       JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
814 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S WARSAW              38.21N 93.38W
06/30/2016                   BENTON             MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS DOWNED SEVERAL TREE LIMBS
            SOUTH OF WARSAW.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
825 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E SPARTA              37.00N 93.05W
06/30/2016                   CHRISTIAN          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE LIMBS AND A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN EAST OF SPARTA.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

DSA