River Flood Warning 22, NWS Springfield, MO

700 
WGUS83 KSGF 091401
FLSSGF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
901 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...
Missouri...
 
  Little Osage River at Fulton affecting Bourbon County 
  Little Osage River near Horton affecting Vernon County 
  Marmaton River near Nevada affecting Vernon County 
   
.Heavy rainfall over the past several days will cause river levels to 
rise above flood stage. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for later statements.

Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic 
Prediction Service page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/ 
index.php?wfo=sgf 

&&

KSC011-100501-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0021.160909T1720Z-160911T1330Z/
/FTNK1.1.ER.160909T1720Z.160910T0000Z.160910T1330Z.NO/
901 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...For the Little Osage River at Fulton...
* At 8:15 AM Friday The stage was 17.0 feet. 
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 24.8 feet by this evening.  The river will fall below 
  flood stage by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins at the gage site.  
  Farmland at the gage site becomes covered by flood waters, and 
  Highway 31, east of town becomes flooded. Highway 31, four miles 
  west of Fulton has flood waters reach four to six feet in depth. 

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 6 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon

Little Osage River Basin
  Fulton           22  17.0 Fri 08 AM  22.6   7.9   4.1


&&


LAT...LON 3802 9462 3789 9462 3800 9476 3804 9477

 

$$

MOC217-100501-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0020.160910T0548Z-160914T0150Z/
/HTNM7.1.ER.160910T0548Z.160912T0000Z.160913T0150Z.NO/
901 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...For the Little Osage River near Horton...
* At 8:45 AM Friday The stage was 29.8 feet. 
* Flood stage is 41.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by around midnight and continue 
  to rise to near 44.4 feet by Sunday evening.  The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Monday evening.
* Impact...At 45.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins at the gage site. 

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 6 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon

Little Osage River Basin
  Horton           41  29.8 Fri 09 AM  42.2  43.7  43.8


&&


LAT...LON 3800 9454 3801 9437 3795 9437 3794 9455

 

$$

MOC217-100501-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0022.160911T0900Z-160913T2015Z/
/NVDM7.1.ER.160911T0900Z.160912T0600Z.160912T2015Z.NO/
901 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...For the Marmaton River near Nevada...
* At 8:45 AM Friday The stage was 3.3 feet. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by Sunday morning and continue to
  rise to near 20.9 feet by early Monday morning.  The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Monday afternoon.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Minor flooding occurs near the gage site and
  affects low lying areas along the river.

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 6 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon

Marmaton River Basin
  Nevada           20   3.3 Fri 09 AM  14.9  20.2  20.8


&&


LAT...LON 3785 9454 3784 9441 3791 9435 3793 9438

 

$$

433 
WGUS83 KSGF 091845
FLSSGF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
145 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016



 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...
Missouri...

  Little Osage River at Fulton affecting Bourbon County 
  Little Osage River near Horton affecting Vernon County 
  Marmaton River near Nevada affecting Vernon County 
   
.Heavy rainfall that fell last night...and additional rain expected
today...will result in rises on area rivers. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for later statements.

Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic 
Prediction Service page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/ 
index.php?wfo=sgf 

&&

KSC011-100945-
/O.CON.KSGF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-160911T1330Z/
/FTNK1.1.ER.160909T2150Z.160910T0000Z.160910T1330Z.NO/
145 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...For the The Little Osage River at Fulton...
 * At  1:15 PM Friday The stage was 17.4 feet. 
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 24.8 feet by this evening.  The river will
  fall below flood stage by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins at the gage site.  
  Farmland at the gage site becomes covered by flood waters, and 
  Highway 31, east of town becomes flooded. Highway 31, four miles 
  west of Fulton has flood waters reach four to six feet in depth. 

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 6 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon

Little Osage River Basin
  Fulton           22  17.4 Fri 01 PM  22.6   7.9   4.1


&&


LAT...LON 3802 9462 3789 9462 3800 9476 3804 9477

 

$$

MOC217-100945-
/O.CON.KSGF.FL.W.0020.160910T0548Z-160914T0150Z/
/HTNM7.1.ER.160910T0548Z.160912T0000Z.160913T0150Z.NO/
145 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...For the The Little Osage River near Horton...
 * At 12:45 PM Friday The stage was 32.3 feet. 
* Flood stage is 41.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by around midnight and continue 
  to rise to near 44.4 feet by Sunday evening.  The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Monday evening.
* Impact...At 45.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins at the gage site. 

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 6 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon

Little Osage River Basin
  Horton           41  32.3 Fri 01 PM  42.2  43.7  43.8


&&


LAT...LON 3800 9454 3801 9437 3795 9437 3794 9455

 

$$

MOC217-100945-
/O.CON.KSGF.FL.W.0022.160911T0900Z-160913T2015Z/
/NVDM7.1.ER.160911T0900Z.160912T0600Z.160912T2015Z.NO/
145 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...For the The Marmaton River near Nevada...
 * At 12:45 PM Friday The stage was 4.0 feet. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by Sunday morning and continue to
  rise to near 20.9 feet by early Monday morning.  The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Monday afternoon.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Minor flooding occurs near the gage site and
  affects low lying areas along the river.

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 6 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon

Marmaton River Basin
  Nevada           20   4.0 Fri 01 PM  14.9  20.2  20.8


&&


LAT...LON 3785 9454 3784 9441 3791 9435 3793 9438

 

$$

175 
WGUS83 KSGF 100157
FLSSGF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
857 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...
Missouri...
 
  Little Osage River at Fulton affecting Bourbon County 
  Little Osage River near Horton affecting Vernon County 
  Marmaton River near Nevada affecting Vernon County 
   
.Heavy rainfall that occured last night combined with additional rainfall 
tonight will cause river levels to rise above flood stage. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for later statements.

Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic 
Prediction Service page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/ 
index.php?wfo=sgf 

&&

KSC011-101657-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-160911T1834Z/
/FTNK1.1.ER.160910T0834Z.160910T1200Z.160910T1834Z.NO/
857 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...For the Little Osage River at Fulton...
* At  8:31 PM Friday The stage was 19.1 feet. 
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to
  rise to near 23.2 feet by tomorrow morning.  The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Minor flooding begins at the gage site. 
  Flood waters mainly affect farmland along the Little Osage River 
  Basin between the gage site and Highway 31 west of Fulton.  

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 6 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon

Little Osage River Basin
  Fulton           22  19.1 Fri 09 PM   23.2   9.4   4.0


&&


LAT...LON 3802 9462 3789 9462 3800 9476 3804 9477

 

$$

MOC217-101657-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0020.160910T1134Z-160914T0000Z/
/HTNM7.1.ER.160910T1134Z.160911T0600Z.160913T0000Z.NO/
857 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...For the Little Osage River near Horton...
* At  8:45 PM Friday The stage was 36.2 feet. 
* Flood stage is 41.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue 
  to rise to near 43.7 feet by early Sunday morning.  The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Monday evening.
* Impact...At 45.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins at the gage site. 

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 6 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon

Little Osage River Basin
  Horton           41  36.2 Fri 09 PM  41.1  43.6  43.1


&&


LAT...LON 3800 9454 3801 9437 3795 9437 3794 9455

 

$$

MOC217-101657-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0022.160910T2024Z-160913T1545Z/
/NVDM7.1.ER.160910T2024Z.160911T0600Z.160912T1545Z.NO/
857 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...For the Marmaton River near Nevada...
* At  8:45 PM Friday The stage was 8.4 feet. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 21.5 feet by early Sunday morning.  The 
  river will fall below flood stage by late Monday morning.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Flood waters impact the county road west of 
  Nevada at the gage site. 

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 6 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon

Marmaton River Basin
  Nevada           20   8.4 Fri 09 PM  16.4  21.5  20.5


&&


LAT...LON 3785 9454 3784 9441 3791 9435 3793 9438

 

$$

463 
WGUS83 KSGF 101305
FLSSGF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
805 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016



 ...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Marmaton River near Nevada affecting Vernon County
   
.Heavy rainfall over the past several days have caused the Marmaton river to
rise. However,it is expected to crest below flood stage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for later statements.

Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic 
Prediction Service page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/ 
index.php?wfo=sgf 

&&

MOC217-101335-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-160913T1545Z/
/NVDM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
805 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016

The Flood Warning has been cancelled for  The Marmaton River near 
Nevada.
* At 7:45 AM Saturday The stage was 14.1 feet. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 17.6 feet 
  tomorrow morning.


&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 6 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Sun   Mon   Tue

Marmaton River Basin
  Nevada           20  14.1 Sat 08 AM  17.6  15.2   9.4


&&


LAT...LON 3785 9454 3784 9441 3791 9435 3793 9438

 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1212 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016

In coordination with WFO ICT added a few counties to the south for
the Flash Flood Watch.

Continuing to see activity develop in high pwat environment over
se KS/ne OK and drift into our western cwfa. This is occurring
ahead of subtle upper level shortwave over sw KS into OK. That
area is also being fed by sw low level (850mb) flow which is
expected to increase somewhat over the next few hours. Clusters of
heavy rain producing storms will continue for a few more hours.

The low level flow will veer and weaken late tonight into early
Fri as the upper level disturbance also shifts east. HRRR has
been consistent with a temporary slow down or lull in the precip
toward daybreak Fri.

Severe storm risk is very low, but some non-zero risk for a wet
downburst exists over the far western cwfa this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016

Scattered storms and showers are currently spreading east across
the area and will continue through the late afternoon hours and
will dissipate from west to east early this evening. Deep layer
shear is on the weak side and therefore will limit the severe
risk with this activity. Wind gusts up to 40mph, cloud to ground
lightning, and brief heavy rain will occur with the stronger storms
this afternoon into early this evening.

Additional storms will develop across central Kansas this evening as
an upper level disturbance tracks across the region. This activity
will spread north across portions of western and central Missouri
tonight. A band of heavy rainfall is expected with this activity
across these locations tonight. This band will likely track north
of a line from Pittsburg Kansas to Lake of the Ozarks, but the
exact track could shift slightly north of south. No severe
weather will occur, but tropical influence from the remnants of
Newton could lead to efficient rain amounts in a narrow band
tonight.

Scattered storms will be possible during the day on Friday but
should not be widespread in nature and should dissipate by early
Friday evening.

An upper level trough will then dive south into the Plains Friday
night and will send a cold front to the southeast. Storms are
expected to develop to the north of the area Friday
afternoon/early evening and spread south into the area Friday
evening and night.

The storms should remain north of I-44 Friday
evening and then move south during the overnight hours.
Instability will weaken through the night, so the showers and
storms are expected to weaken as they spread south across the
area, and could dissipate all together by the time they reach
south central Missouri early Saturday morning. Deep layer shear
will increase across the region as the upper level trough
approaches from the west. The deep layer severe and expected
instability across the region will support a severe risk across
the northern half of the forecast area, generally along and north
of I-44. Mid level lapse rates and warm temperatures in the mid
levels will limit the hail potential. A few of the strongest
storms may be capable of penny size hail but the main severe risk
will be damaging straight line winds and will be isolated in
nature with line segments that can develop.

Additional heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms along
the front. The intensity in the rainfall will decrease from north
to south, especially south of I-44, as the storms weaken. The
heaviest rainfall from the round tonight and again with the round on
Friday night is expected to be across east central Kansas and west
central Missouri where the Flash Flood Watch is effect for.
Therefore, no adjustments are expected to the watch at this time
and will leave as is as these locations are expected to see the
heaviest rainfall amounts of 3 to 4 inches. Else where across the
area generally 1 to 3 inches are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016

A few linger showers may occur across south central Missouri
Saturday morning but will end quickly during the morning hours. A
cooler and drier air mass will spread over the region behind the
front. Highs on Saturday and Sunday afternoons will be in the 70s
as lows in the upper 40s to the lower 50s occur Saturday night
into Sunday morning.

Temperatures will then warm back to near normal with readings in
the lower to middle 80s early next week. Another upper level
trough and cold front will track across the region by the middle
of next week. The front will bring additional chances for showers
and storms to the area along with cooler conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Will watch trends as a disturbance
lifts northeast through the region in the near term. Showers/sct
tstms will continue to affect KSGF/KJLN in the near term, but a
bit of lull is expected after 10z to 12z. Better chances should
pick up again after 18z with some heating/instability. A cold
front will approach late in the taf period with a good chance for
storms after 00z.

There is some fog potential overnight. KBBG is down to three miles
and with moisture in place in the low levels, any place where the
sky can clear will have the potential for fog. KBBG is favored
south of the plateau with a south wind so will put a tempo group
with IFR fog 10z-14z.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ055>057-
     066>070-077>081-088>095.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

UPDATE...DSA
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
726 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-100030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
726 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE
AREA. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP LONG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR. AROUND ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG HIGHWAY 60 AND NORTHWARD. RAINFALL RATES
IN THESE AREAS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN RISK...A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA