Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST THU JAN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL CLIP THE AREA TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT THEN
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING WET WEATHER ROUGHLY EVERY OTHER DAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF WESTERN WA THIS EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CLOUD UP WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH THRU WESTERN WASHINGTON
FRIDAY FOR SOME SPOTTY RAIN. A MUCH WETTER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER VIGOROUS
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF SNOW SEEM LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY IN THE CASCADES AS EAST WINDS IN THE PASSES KEEP SNOW
LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE THERE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWING FRONTS BRINGING RAIN ROUGHLY EVERY
OTHER DAY WITH DRIER BREAKS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. MONDAY
WILL BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT QUITE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXACT TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A DRIER PERIOD.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN
OREGON TONIGHT...BRUSHING THE SOUTH PART OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
LIGHT RAIN. CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE SOUTH
AND ALSO PATCHY FOG. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MOIST AND STABLE ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT
OVER FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE TERMINAL FRIDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE CEILING TO MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE N-NE 4-9 KT TONIGHT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT MOVING INTO OREGON WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS TO MOST WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WITH POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS
BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY GENERATE A WEST SWELL ABOVE 20 FEET WHICH
COULD REACH THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TIDES AROUND PUGET SOUND WILL BE HIGH FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. RECENT TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING THE TOTAL TIDE ABOVE 13.5 FEET AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
THE 13.5 FOOT LEVEL IN SEATTLE IS THE POINT WHERE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW STARTS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
MAY BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND COULD DRIVE THE SKOKOMISH
TO FLOOD STAGE AGAIN. OTHERWISE...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.
     GALE WATCH COAST AND CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
  SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML